Do the Mets have a chance?

The sub-header of this blog indicates that this is the place to read an "optimistic view" of the Mets. By extension, I suppose, I am supposed to be the optimist.

Of course, at times, optimism has to be tempered with realism or the rosy-eyed optimistic view on the world becomes hopelessly irrelevant.

Still, incredibly, (maybe it's the thought of lush grass of summer) I once again find within me some optimism when reflecting upon the coming season for the New York Mets.

Anyway, here are some reasons to feel (moderately) optimistic about the 2012 Mets:

• Last year's Mets were better than you think - Last year, the Mets won 77 games. Don't get me wrong; that's a bad year (especially with the payroll they had). But it's not horribly bad. It's not 2003 bad. It's not 1993 bad. It's obviously miles better than the 40-win 1962 Mets. Now, bad (instead of horrible) is not good news, but...
• In baseball, you don't have to be THAT good - If there's a benchmark number of wins for a great team, it's probably 100. However, you don't have to be great. Good is (sometimes) good enough. Last year, the Cardinals won the World Series with 90 wins. The 2006 Cardinals won 83 games and won the World Series. I'm not saying that all the Mets need is 83 wins. But 88 could cut it. If there is a second wild-card team this year (an idea that has been bandied about), the top two non-division winning teams would make the playoffs. In two of the last five years, 88 wins would have meant a playoff spot.
• Lucas Duda - Last year, Lucas Duda bounced around, ultimately ending up defending the devilish Pepsi Porch region of Citi Field. With a set position and a simpler right field, Duda will field a lot better. Baseball-Reference's WAR saw Duda as worth -1.4 runs on defense. He'll improve mightily.
• Mike Pelfrey - Mike Pelfrey seems to be on a bit of a pattern. In 2008, he was excellent. In 2009 he was dreadful. In 2010 he was very good. In 2011 he was horrible. Will 2012 be another good even year?

There are reasons to be pessimistic about the Mets, too, most notably the gaping hole at shortstop that Jose Reyes and his hair will no longer fill. 

I told a pal a few weeks back that if everything goes right for the Mets they'll be really good. But not everything has to go right if they just need to be the second-best non-division winning team. Obviously, they'll need some improvements from the pitching staff and the youngsters on the playing field. But if a few dice roll the Wright way, the 2012 Mets might just be worth watching.