Saturday, January 19, 2013

Was Stan Musial Underrated?

Stan Musial, as you may have heard, joined the ranks of the "formerly living" today, and is now enshrined in that other Hall of Fame. There's been some banter on Facebook about whether he's underrated. Here's my take.

If Stan Musial were incredibly underrated, we could expect the following statements to be true:

  • A Google search for his name would yield fewer results than a similar search for the names of players of comparable greatness
  • He would not have achieved the recognition he deserved (in terms of Hall of Fame voting, All-Star voting, MVP voting).
To see whether he was under-rated by the first criterion, I looked at Bill James' ratings of the greatest ballplayers and took five players: the two major leaguers immediately ahead of Musial, Stan, and the two right behind him. They were (in order) Ted Williams, Walter Johnson, Stan Musial, Tris Speaker and Henry Aaron. 

The results were interesting. With the exception of Aaron, who was fifth according to James in terms of greatness but is most famous because of the all-time home run crown he had until recently,* the order of the players' greatness (according to James) corresponded with the order of their fame (according to Google). This exercise did not show Stan Musial as very underrated. It showed him as appropriately famous, or perhaps a bit less famous than we would expect.

*And who - come to think of it - might have the most common name among these people. Man, this isn't scientific. I re-did the search adding "baseball" to each player's name (i.e. I searched for "stan musial baseball") and the order was similar. Aaron was the only one whose order changed; he wasn't as much higher than expected as he was the first time.

Looking at the second criterion, I see a mixed bag. Musial was elected to the Hall of Fame in his first year of eligibility with over 90% of the vote. He played in 24 All-Star Games, including six in years that he had fewer than 75 RBIs while playing an offensive position. In those six years, he never hit more than 17 home runs and just twice batted .300. I'm really supposed to be looking at how he is rated now (I think) and not how he was rated when he played (which is really what those numbers reflect), but I certainly don't see any signs of his being underrated by looking at his All-Star record. 

In terms of MVP awards, Stan won 3 of them. bWAR says he should have won four, but even if we think he should have won more than that, that wouldn't really show that he is underrated. With the exception of a juiced Barry Bonds, ballplayers never win more than a few MVP awards, as the writers (who vote) seem to like to "spread the wealth."

Overall, I don't see any indication from the voting record to show that Musial is under-rated. 

All this being said, "stan musial baseball" yields under a million hits on google while "ted williams baseball" yields over 3 million. So, yeah, he's probably underrated. But I don't see evidence that the extent of it is criminal.

Sunday, January 6, 2013

Predictions Plans for 2013

In the past, I've used this blog to make pre-season predictions. I am strongly considering doing that again this year, but I hope to make it more of a scientific exercise and less emotional.

I'm inclined to ignore the pitchers this year; I have much more confidence in my ability to accurately predict batting stats than pitching ones.

Using a more scientific and more limited (ignoring the pitchers) system, I hope to make the predictions somewhat comprehensive. So, hopefully I'll project numerous stats including batting average, doubles, slugging percentage and more.

We'll see what happens.