On the Upcoming Season

Opening Day's about a week away, and it's time to look at the upcoming season - in foresight - and make some predictions. They're going to be wrong - heck, they're always wrong, but what're you worth if you can't make mistakes on your own blog?

I'm going to go position by position, and give my ratings, both objective and subjective (as compared with the 2009 Mets).

Catcher - Rod Barajas is hardly somebody to write home about, but compared with either Brian Schneider or Bengie Molina at five times the price, his acquistion was a quite logical move by the Mets.

He should provide some pop, but his high in OBP (for a full season) is .306. Last year it was .258.

First Base - Daniel Murphy should be better this year than last year for a few reasons:

1. Age - He's about to turn 25, and is probably getting better.
2. More experience should make him a better first baseman
3. More experience should make him a better hitter.

So, yes, I think he's going to be better than he was last year. In a league with Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez, Lance Berkman and Ryan Howard as other first basemen, I'd give Murphy a very slim chance to make the All-Star team.

Second Base - Luis Castillo's signing has been widely scoffed at by the world at large. And I'm not here to defend it. But according to fangraphs.com, Castillo was worth more than what he made last year. If he's similar to what he was in 2009, he'll be quite serviceable. But, at his age, decline is to be expected. Still, if he's close to last year, it'll be hard to keep complaining about Luis's contract.

Third Base - David Wright had (statistically) a freakishly weird season last year. A lot of people expect his power to rebound. Personally, I'd be surprised if he hits 10 (or fewer) homers in 2010, but without knowing why he hit so few home runs last year, I can't quite convince myself that he'll hit 30 this year.

The thing is, even if he loses his power stroke completeley, like last year, he's still an extremely good baseball player. His fielding, batting and baserunning are all quite good. He's just not MVP-caliber without the power, but he's still excellent.

Left Field - Jason Bay will probably (i.e. he'd better) hit better than 2009 Met left-fielders, and I think he'll field out there a lot better than Daniel Murphy, too. The guy's good.*

Center Field - Carlos Beltran will probably be back soon and have a phenomenal year. He's going to knock over 25 home runs and he's going to have over 100 RBIs. And play Gold Glove defense. He's probably the best center fielder in baseball. And in the last 12 seasons, he's been caught stealing 38 times.

Right Field - Jeff Francoeur leaves, I suppose, some room for hope. I'm probably least optimistic about his upcoming year than I am with any other Met.

*And for all those who like to point at his 36 home runs last year being in his first full year with the Red Sox, he only hit 15 home runs at Fenway Park. And only 2 were at Yankee Stadium.

That's it for the starting lineup. No guarantees, but pitchers, the bench and that ever-elusive might fast shortstop may follow in a future post.