Friday, January 29, 2010

Bases on Balls

Sky Andrechek, here, writes about the statistical revolution in baseball and how it is not really affecting the on-field play. As such, he opines, fans who would like to ignore sabermetrics can do so, even with their eyes open. 

One of the things he writes is that walks have not gone up since the publication of Moneyball in 2003. Which doesn't seem like a proof to me.

Sabermetrics attempt to find objective truth in baseball. The traditional view was that batters who "luckily" walked should not be rewarded for the pitcher's inability to throw strikes. Of course, a base on balls is not actually a construction of the pitcher. But on the other hand, it is not entirely a construction of the batter.

Andrechek (and others) have noted that walks have not gone up in the last several years. I'm not sure why you'd expect them to have done so. True, batters are now more aware of the value of the walk; organizations are telling them of it. But pitchers are now aware of the danger of the walk, and, I'm sure, are more hesitant about issuing free passes to those who'd like them.

With one group trying to increase walks and one trying to decrease them, one can hardly express surprise when the numbers don't change.

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