Flushing's Bay

Reportedly, the Mets have reached a deal with Jason Bay, formerly of the Boston Red Sox and the Pittsburgh Pirates.Bay has been a perennial offensive force in the National (and more recently) and American leagues. His fielding and baserunning are both subpar, but for the Mets, a team sorely lacking in the power department, Bay seems to be a part of the solution.

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Here's the thing: The Mets shouldn't (nor, I think, do they) think that this is it. The starting rotation last year was weak, when healthy. Importing a pitcher seems to be a necessity if the Mets expect to contend. I thought the pitcher who made the most sense was Jason Marquis. Apparently, either the Mets disagree, or they don't find acquiring another starter necessary.

On that side of the debate stand the facts that:

1. While only winning 70 games, the Mets' pitching overall was not horrendous. They gave up the 9th most runs in the league. Nothing to write home about, but not horrible.
2. Santana is expected to be healthy all year. That should save some runs.
3. Mike Pelfrey, after showing that he has true major league capabilities in 2008 can hardly be as bad (or, really nearly as bad) as he was last year. Also, his strikeouts per nine innings were up (a
bit) and his batting average allowed on balls in play were up (a tick), which would both seem to indicate optimisim for 2010.
4. Oliver Perez is not likely to be worth the $12 million that he'll be paid in 2010. He's also not likely to have an ERA over 6.80. (Yes. He was that bad.) There's no question that the amount of walks that Perez dispenses is alarming. However, in 2008 he had a 4.22 ERA. In 2007, he had a 3.56 ERA. I'm not willing to write off this man yet.
5. Jon Niese, who is recovering from that awful hamstring tear, could turn out to be a real stud. Supposedly, he will be ready for Spring Training, and he will, presumably be competing for a spot in the rotation. His numbers in the high minors were quite good.
6. Don't write off John Maine, either. His durability is a question mark - and that may have to be addressed - but not a definite no.

Okay, a lot of things have to go right. Maybe they will. I'm not going to say that I think all the optimism will convert itself into reality - I'm saying it's possible. And, remember, it's not like the Mets can expect to be so bad, even aside from the injuries. Honestly, Mike Pelfrey and Oliver Perez almost have to be much better pitchers this year.

Nevertheless, shoring up the back end of the rotation should be a priority. Chien-Ming Wang, at the right price, is exactly what this club needs. He certainly has the track record of being a much-better-than-effective major league starter. I don't know what was wrong with him last year. Mechanics? Mindset? Whatever. This guy seems to me to be the perfect kind of risk to take.

Also, don't kid yourself - the Phillies have question marks, too. How much does 37 year old Raul Ibanez have left in the tank? Can Cole Hamels turn his game around? What's left in Jaime Moyer's left arm?

You know, there's a really good reason for them to actually play these games!