Late Push

With the trading deadline creeping up - and with it the decision of whether to become buyers or sellers - the Mets have gone on a winning spree. Before falling to the Rockies in the second game of their twinbill on Thursday, the New York Mets - with all their injuries - were winners of five straight.

How did this injury ravaged lineup win five straight. Well, it's kind of simple. When you give up nine runs in five games and score at least four per, you're giving yourself a good shot. Every starter pitched well - even Oliver Perez was OK - and the offense was doing the job, too.

The Mets stand six games back of the Giants in the wildcard hunt.

Notes: I'd like to note Fernando Tatis's two home runs against the Rockies. Number six on the year, Thursday, put him into a tie for third on the Mets this year, with Omir Santos and David Wright. They're behind Gary Sheffield and Carlos Beltran. (Seriously, how much money could I have made by betting that David Wright, 375 at-bats into the season, would have 6 home runs.

Also, nice heads-up play by Angel Berroa in the top of the seventh yesterday. Troy Tulowitzki hit a high fly to left. Tatis tracked it to the wall and leaped, but missed the play. Anyway, the ball bounced hard off the padding and was making its way back to the infield, when Berroa, the shortstop, picked it up and threw it in.

Not something you see every day.

Welcome

Fernando Nieve, who tore his right quadriceps while running out an infield grounder yesterday, has been placed on the disabled list, and outfielder Cory Sullivan has been called up from Triple-A to take his spot on the roster.

According to this,

"The team called up Sullivan rather than 22-year-old prospect Nick Evans (who played 15 games for the Mets prior to the All-Star break) because of Sullivan's versatility.

"In our situation now, in Cory's defense, he has a little bit more versatility than Nick," manager Jerry Manuel said. "He can play center field, he can play right field. Nick is a first baseman/left fielder basically, and he's still growing and learning those positions.""

Now, maybe I'm crazy (it's been argued), but to me, that doesn't really make any sense. Two days ago it seemed as though the Mets outfield consisted of Jeff Francoeur in right, Angel Pagan in center, and Gary Sheffield in left, with Fernando Tatis and Jeremy Reed as the backups. Okay, now Sheffield hurts himself.

If I'm the GM, I probably want to call up Nick Evans and play him in left field, but apparently they want Jeremy Reed to play left.

Here's the problem though. The man who went down was not needed to play center or right. Why should his replacement need to? Tatis can play right, and Reed can play all three spots, so a versatile outfielder is irrelevant. Basically, you can have one outfielder who can only play left.

I may have the answer. According to this, the Jerry Manuel is toying with the idea of having Livan Hernandez play some first base. Aha! Should that happen, Daniel Murphy might try to reinvent himself as an outfielder - one who can only play left.

If Jerry is really going to try this, the decision to leave Evans in Buffalo makes some sense. If he isn't - which certainly would seem more likely - it's a mystery.

Optimism?

Everybody thinks that the Mets stink. And can you blame them? They're nine games out of first place.

Well, if you're feeling blue about this team, orange you happy to read these optimistic notes.

1. Johan Santana, who is darn good whenever, is markedly better after the All-Star break. Just for one example, last year his ERA, WHIP, and SO/BB ratio were all much better after the All-Star break. And he went 8-0.
2. David Wright is a power hitter. He will likely hit some home runs in the second half.
3. Daniel Murphy is seemingly getting comfortable at first. Maybe he'll start hitting.
4. The bullpen is pretty good.
5. If Carlos Delgado comes back in, like two weeks, and gets hot, he could carry this team.
6. Fernando Tatis is probably a bit better than he's playing.

I know, I know, it's a weak list. But the fifth point (while containing a big "if") can be huge.

Baseball Note: According to this, the fourth-most similar pitcher to Tim Lincecum through age 24 (I know you were wondering) is Jim Bouton (who, in case you don't know, was arguably the most influential baseball player ever).

Poll Results

Ironically enough, considering his terrible start on Friday, our readership (or whoever voted) chose Mike Pelfrey as the second-best starting pitcher on the staff.

Our new poll asks about what your reaction to the Ryan Church for Jeff Francoeur was.

Vote early and vote often.

Time for Synagogue

Okay, we're one game past the traditional halfway mark in the baseball schedule, and things are not looking good if you root for the Mets. The Mets, picked by Sports Illustrated to win it all this year, are in fourth place.

With an overflowing portion of injuries to the likes of Jose Reyes, Carlos Delgado and Carlos Beltran and the under-performance of players like Daniel Murphy and Fernando Tatis, the Mets are in hot water.

Then Omar Minaya trades Ryan Church for Jeff Francoeur. Ryan Church was one of the Mets only healthy players with any real upside. Sheffield's old, Castillo has no power, Schneider can't really hit. Church was really good last year (especially until the concussion) and has shown flashes of that this year. In fact, with Beltran and Fernando Martinez out, he became our center fielder.

So, let me understand: You trade one of your best uninjured players for a slow outfielder who doesn't hit for average, strikes out a ton, and treats walks as if they're the bubonic plague. Oh, and let me clarify - I'm not talking about and Adam-Dunn-without-the-walks type of player. This is a man with five home runs. Let me repeat that: Five home runs.

I understand that three years ago Jeff Francoeur was a summer sensation. He made Sports Illustrated, got all the hoopla, and for all I know, it didn't even get to his head. But the fact is that right now the guy stinks. And he's seemingly going on a downward trend. Could this trade work out well for the Mets? Sure.

But it doesn't make any sense.

Ugly Update

The Mets, to put it mildly, are suffering mightily. After dropping 3 games in Philadelphia (in which they scored only three runs - three runs), the Mets are now three games under .500 and 4.5 games behind the first-place Phillies.

What's more, the Los Angeles Dodgers (of Los Angeles), possessors of the best record in the major leagues as well as Manny Ramirez, are coming to Flushing. Get ready for a long week.

Or should you?

Here's why the Mets might beat the Dodgers...

Game 1: Mike Pelfrey vs. Clayton Kershaw
These two youngsters have a lot of potential between them, so don't look for too many runs on the scoreboard tomorrow night. If Pelfrey is as good as he was last time out, the Mets might just eke out a win.

Game 2: Oliver Perez vs. Hiroki Kuroda
Oliver Perez. The enigma to end all mysteries. He's been devastating so often in his career - and downright terrible just as often. Hopefully he'll be on the top of his game and the Mets can score a few runs. Because otherwise, they're toast.

Game 3: Randy Wolf vs. Livan Hernandez
Probably the game that the Mets have the least chance of winning, as Livan always seems to implode when playing good teams - but what watch out for the fellow. He's got a lot of tricks up his sleeve.

As I analyze these forthcoming games, I realize that the only reason I give the Mets any chance against the Dodgers is because Tim Redding is not pitching.

How's that for optimism?

Bases on Balls

In a somewhat controversial blog post, Harold Reynolds basically bashes power hitters like Adam Dunn and Adrian Gonzalez because they walk and "clog the bases." He also writes that he doesn't like OPS because a pitcher's fear leads him to walk power hitters and drive up their on-base percentage.

Well, that's a darn good reason for a stat to go up. Walks are extremely valuable. I did some research on the subject and concluded that on occasions that Adam Dunn walked this year, he had 2 RBIs and scored 7 runs.* There were also occasions in which he extended the inning and one of the following batters drove in other base-runners.

All-in-all, walks are not remotely worthless. Batters who draw a lot of them (for any reason) should be rewarded in the statistical record. If they have value, it should show.

*I'm not entirely certain, because I checked these numbers a while back, but I believe that there was also one instance in which he was pinch-run for and the pinch-runner scored.

Closing In...

Carlos Beltran is now hurt. He joins the ever-growing list of wounded Mets that includes such ballplayers as Carlos Delgado, Jose Reyes, J.J. Putz, Oliver Perez and John Maine. Oh, and don't forget Gary Sheffield. Yet, believe it or not, the Mets are closing in on first place.

Under almost any circumstances, winning three games in a four-game series is impressive. With all those All-Stars on the shelf, it's nearly unfathomable.

So how did the New York Mets, in their current crippled state achieve the unachievable? How did they face off against a first-place (and darn good) St. Louis Cardinals team for a threee-game set and emerge victorious?

A lot of it had to do with starting pitching. Over the four games, Mets starters pitched 27 innings, in which they allowed nine runs (only seven earned) on only 23 hits. Their strikeout to walk ration was a pedestrian 1.36, but the walks didn't hurt all too much and the defense did pretty good work. Was there a luck aspect involved? Probably, but what do you want - this is baseball.

But it was more than that. In the nine innings that the bullpen worked they gave up nothing. 3 hits and no runs. And remember, J.J. Putz, the setup man, is disabled, and Bobby Parnell, his replacement, has been so overworked that they vowed to rest him for the first few games. No runs in four games! It's an impressive achievement, to say the least.

But there's some more credit to pass around. David Wright had 6 hits and 4 runs, Fernando Tatis, who is hopefully out of his seemingly interminable batting slump, had 5 RBIs over the four games. Ryan Church contributed runs and RBIs at the rate of 3 apiece, and the middle of the order, while it may not have scared the Cardinals too much, certainly hurt them.

Tomorrow the Mets take on the Yankees at Citi Field with Mike Pelfrey taking on Yankee ace C.C. Sabathia.



Poll Update: In our last poll, we asked you "Who should play right and left field for the Mets?" with the choices being Gary Sheffield, Ryan Church, Fernando Tatis, and Fernando Martinez. Coming in first was Ryan Church, with Gary Sheffield and Fernando Tatis tied for second.

Weekend Notes

After a really tough loss to the Yankees at their new "wiffle ball stadium" on Friday night (capped by a Luis Castillo error), the Mets rebounded last night by beating the Yankees 6-2. Gary Sheffield likes going back to being a designated hitter - he's 4 for 10 with two home runs and a double in the last two games.

David Wright, if you didn't know, is leading the major leagues in batting average.
Carlos Beltran is not far behind.
Fernando Nieve pitched solidly in place of the injured John Maine.
The Mets had 17 hits today.
They are not dead.
Trust me.

Interesting Note: It might just be me, but it seems as though there is an inordinate number of former Mets second basemen floating around the Major Leagues.

1. Melvin Mora, BAL - played 8 games at second base with the Mets in 1999-2000 before being traded (with others) to the Orioles for Mike Bordick.
2. Ty Wigginton, BAL - played 37 games at second base with the Mets in 2002 and 2004 before being traded to the Pirates in 2004 in the Kris Benson deal.
3. Marco Scutaro, TOR - played in 51 games at second base for the Mets in 2002-2003 before being waived in 2003.
4. Anderson Hernandez, WAS - played in 18 games at second base for the Mets in 2005-2006 before being sent to the Nationals in 2008 to complete the Luis Ayala deal.
5. Kazuo Matsui, HOU - played in 105 games at second base with the Mets in 2004-2006 before being traded in 2006 for Eli Marrero.
6. Jeff Keppinger, HOU - played in 32 games with the Mets at second base in 2004 before being traded in 2006 to the Royals for Ruben Gotay.
   

Ruben Gotay (who played 37 games at second in 2007) does not make the list. He might soon, considering he is a AAA infielder for the Arizona Diamondbacks and his on-base percentage is currently more than 50 points higher than what the Diamondbacks are getting from their second basemen.

Coincidence? I Think Not

It sure is good that we posted this post when we did. Today's lineup has Beltran and Wright batting third and fourth, followed by Ryan Church, and then in the 6-hole the slumping, aged Gary Sheffield.

Could it be a coincidence that Jerry takes our advice to heart? Nah.

Note: Luis Castillo is batting ninth in this game. Alex Cora is occupying the lead-off spot. It'll probably stay that way for the remainder of the series.

Batting Order Blues

As put forth so nicely here, David Wright is leading the National League in batting average and on-base percentage, which brings forth the question of why he is batting 5th in the batting order. Now, it been scientifically proven that the order of the batters makes a very slight difference, but still - the Mets lost two games in extra innings over the last 48 hours. Just one extra Met run by the ninth inning in either game would have them 2 games out of first right now instead 4.

While I haven't written about it, this has been an issue that has been on my mind for a while - essentially since Wright's batting average escalated and Carlos Delgado went on the Disabled List. I also think that it's quite a waste for the Mets to have two of the top three (the other is Carlos Beltran) batting averages (and two of the top five on-base percentages) in the National League, and not take advantage by batting those players back-to-back.

I asked somebody about this a few days ago, and he said, essentially, that Gary Sheffield's value goes up because he's being protected by Wright (as opposed to, say Fernando Tatis or Daniel Murphy). Now, I can hear that. But I still can't stomach Jerry Manuel's separating his two best hitters - by what has turned out to be an out machine in Gary Sheffield, no less.

The solution, perhaps, is to have Sheffield bat third. Then, Wright and Beltran could protect him in the fourth and fifth slots.

I just don't see how it can hurt to have your best hitters batting back-to-back.

Welcome

Good Morning, and welcome to our new blog address. We hope you're as excited about the change as we are.

Enjoy!

What'd You Expect

The Mets just lost two out of three games to the division-leading Philadelphia Phillies, which places them 4 games out of first place. Well, what did you expect? The Phillies are a good team - they currently have the second-best record in the major leagues (behind the Dodgers). Their pitching, while not great, is good enought that when combined with their amazing offense, good defense (they have the best Fielding % in the National League) and fine baserunning makes for a pretty darn good team. (By the way, they're also defending World Champions.)

So the Mets can live with losing this series. Especially the way they did. Missing key performers Jose Reyes and Carlos Delgado, it certainly wouldn't've been inconceivable for the Mets to have been embarrassed by the Phillies in the 3-game set. They absolutely were not. The Phillies only outscored the Mets by three runs over the whole series, and both of the Mets losses were in extra innings.

As such, this series lose was excusable. But they can't start duplicating it with regularity. Especially facing a tough stretch of division-leading and other good teams, the Mets cannot let down their guard and just wait to start winning when the big boys come back. They're not playing the Washington Nationals this weekend - their opponent is the revamped version of the New York Yankees, and anything less than a stellar effort by the Mets will likely result in their figuratively being torn to shreds.

But, with their good starting pitching, better base-running, and just a bit of clutch-hitting by the big bats, they should withstand their obstacles.

Those Tricksters

Our poll of "Until Carlos Delgado's return, who should man first base?" ended in a tie between Fernando Tatis and Jeremy Reed. The Mets, in a move that has a lot fo merit, turned erstwhile outfielder Daniel Murphy into a first baseman, essentially nullifying our poll. Considering it leaves leftfield to Gary Sheffield, who has become the team's cleanup hitter, the position change makes a lot of sense.

Meanwhile, the Mets stand 3 games behind the division-leading Phillies after splitting the first two games of their weekend series with the Nats. With a injury-plagued team, the Mets are struggling to put out a major-league caliber lineup every night, which probably has a lot to do with their being swept by the Pittsburgh Pirates this week.

But help is on the way. Ryan Church, who had been out with a strained right hamstring, should be coming off of the disabled list on Sunday, and should provide a defensive upgrade, at the very least.

Here's the key for the Mets: With key offensive contributors like Messrs. Delgado and Reyes sidelined by injury, the way to victory for the Mets essentially lies with the starting pitching. The offense is weak, but with quality pitching by Santana, Pelfrey and Co., the offense should perform well enough to win most of the time.

And that's good enough.

-------------------------------------------------------

New Poll: Our new poll asks you to select the two outfielders who you believe should be flanking Carlos Beltran in the outfield. The options are Gary Sheffield, Ryan Church, Fernando Tatis and Fernando Martinez. Please only pick two.

Predictable Success

Baseball is fickle, every fan of the game knows that. The 1962 Mets, considered by many to be the worst team of all time won 1/4 of their games.

A .250 winning percentage is obscenely low, and a .700 winning percentage is exceedingly high. As such, when two ballclubs play a game, even if one has significantly more talent than the other, you can never predict the outcome with real certainty.

That being said, the Mets' sweep of the Washington Nationals was hardly unpredictable (see this). Even though they were missing a few key players, the Mets outclassed the Nats. Gary Sheffield was bashing the ball, Messrs. Maine, Hernandez, and Santana pitched quite well, and the team as a whole played like they meant it.

The Mets even did well in regard to video review, with Sheffield and Murphy's blasts being ruled home runs.

Additionally, your "Met Fan" blogger made his way to Citi Field for the first time on Memorial Day, and was sitting in exactly the wrong spot to have a live opinion on Gary Sheffield's home run.

But you can't mess with a sweep that knocks the Mets into first place.

What a Welcome

The Mets are surely expecting an easy go of it when they commence a three-game series with the cellar-dwelling Washington Nationals tomorrow evening. And after winning two of three games over the weekend from the powerhouse Boston Red Sox you can harldy blame them if that's how they feel.

The Mets entered Boston down in the doldrums, reeling after four straight losses on the left coast to the Giants and Dodgers. The Mets certainly should have expected to lose two out of three to the Red Sox in Boston. But instead, they went out, performed and surprised everyone, including (I bet) themselves in taking the series from the defending AL East Champions.

It started on Friday night when Johan Santana out-dueled Daisuke Matsuzaka and the Mets emerged as victors by a count of 5 to
Saturday night's win was certainly dramatic. Down to their last out against one of the premier relief aces in baseball, Sox closer Johnathan Papelbon, the Mets came back to win with the power of Omir Santos, the discernment of the umpiring crew, and the gloves of David Wright, Ramon Martinez, Luis Castillo and Daniel Murphy (left-to-right). (Parenthetically, I think Daniel Murphy is using Carlos Delgado's glove when playing first base. As such, perhaps he deserves the credit! I wonder if Bill James would give him a win share for the use of his glove. If so, he may be the first player ever to earn a win share while on the Disabled List.)

Sunday's game was a notably bad one for the Mets' pitching. The 12 runs they allowed tied the team's season high. The hitting was alright, including another home run for a Met catcher, this time Ramon Castro.

All in all, the Mets are 23-20, and 1.5 games out of first place, and if they want to show that they are a playoff-caliber team, they will have to take advantage of the next two weeks, when they will face the Nationals, Marlins and Pirates, all of whom are struggling.

Glad to be back

After our unexcused absence of the last few week's, we at this blog are glad to announce that there is a new poll up. Enjoy.

---------------------------------------------

Today, Sunday May 17th, 2009, the New York Mets are in first place.

If you're just tuning into the season (which you had better not be - but if you are), after hearing that statement, you probably figure that Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, Oliver Perez, John Maine and Livan Hernandez have all pitched rather well. You probably think that the Mets' bullpen has been everything it wasn't in 2008. You probably think that Reyes and Murphy have gotten on base consistently and Wright, Delgado, Beltran and Church have been driving them in. You probably think that they have played well defensively.

Frankly, you're probably wrong.

Oh, not on every count, certainly not. Johan Santana has pitched even better than expected. Beltran and Wright have hit like All-Stars. But on the whole, the Mets journey to first place has not gone as planned.

Oliver Perez pitched his way onto the disabled list and Carlos Delgado is injured, as well. Jose Reyes has missed the last three games with a tight calf.

The secret for the Mets success has a lot to do with the success of the role players. Fernando Tatis, Gary Sheffield, Alex Cora and Ramon Castro have all been effective. Johnathan Niese and Nelson Figueroa have each contributed a quality start. And the regulars, even when less than expected (see Ryan Church) have been good enough.

And when you've got your number 3 starter and your cleanup hitter on the disabled list and you're still in first place, that's about all you can hope for.

A Long Summer or a Rough Start?

When you look at where the Mets stand on April 24, 15 games into the 2009 baseball season, things look really bad. The Mets are 6 and 9 and already 5 games behind the out-of-nowhere Florida Marlins. The starting pitching (with one noticeable exception) has been terrible. Clutch hitting is out of style. The season is over.

Or is it? There's no denying that the starting pitching has been horrid, but when they turn it around - and they probably will - there is no saying what this team can do. True, the hitting - particularly clutch - has been weak. But you have to remember: For crying out loud, we're 2 and a half weeks into the season.

Tell me: All the people who have been decrying the Mets for what they've done in their first 15 games, have they signed on Zack Greinke and Johan Santana as unanimous Cy Young award winners for 2009? All you people who think that John Maine and Oliver Perez will keep getting blown out of these ballgames - are you banking on Carlos Beltran winning the batting title?

I think not. Bashing the starting pitching early is particularly stupid. Remember Mike Pelfrey last year? Remember everybody bashing Johan Santana for his average start? He won the ERA crown.

The fact is that it's way too early to make good judgment less than 5% of the way into the season.

That's how I'm seeing things! Got a problem?

What's up Doc?

Nothing much. The Mets signed my nephew.

Gary Sheffield, the nephew of former Mets pitching phenom Dwight Gooden, and a major league superstar himself, has signed with the Mets.

Sheffield, 40, leaves behind a checkered past with seven teams (most recently the Tigers), and joins the Mets as a DH in the National League. Though he's played plenty of outfield in the (somewhat more distant) past, Sheffield has played just 39 games in the outfield over the past 3 seasons.

Presumably, Sheffield would displace Ryan Church in right field for (at minimum) the games against left-handed starting pitching. Since Sheffield's signing, it has become apparent that Church may serve as understudy in left- and center-field in addition to whatever work he gets in right.

At the very least, this deal provides the Mets with an experienced right-handed bat who would be available for pinch-hitting duties.

As Opening Day Nears

As Opening Day nears, it seems as though Jerry Manuel will have Luis Castillo batting eighth, the arguments otherwise (which can be found here) notwithstanding. Jose Reyes will bat in his customary leadoff spot, and Daniel Murphy will bat second. The third slot in the batting order's duty will be split by David Wright and Carlos Beltran, while the other will bat fifth. Carlos Delgado will bat cleanup. Ryan Church and the catching tandem of Brian Schneider and Ramon Castro will round out the top eight spots in the order; the pitcher will bat ninth.

It is unclear as to whether Luis Castillo would bat second in games that Daniel Murphy does not play. Should he not, the two-hole would probably be manned by Fernando Tatis.

Here is the Starting Lineup with last year's statistics: (BA/OBP/SLG/HR/RBI)
1. SS Jose Reyes (.297/.358/.475/16/68)
2. LF Daniel Murphy (.313/.397/.473/2/17) in 131 at-bats/
LF Fernando Tatis (.297/.369/.484/11/47) in 273 at-bats
3. 3B David Wright (.302/.390/.534/33/124)
4. 1B Carlos Delgado (.271/.353/.518/38/115)
5. CF Carlos Beltran (.284/.376/.500/27/112)
6. RF Ryan Church (.276/.346/.439/12/49) in 319 at-bats
7. C Brian Schneider (.257/.339/.367/9/38) in 335 at-bats/
C Ramon Castro (.245/.312/.441/7/24) in 143 at-bats
8. 2B Luis Castillo (.245/.355/.305/3/28) in 199 at-bats

It's a solid lineup, which, coupled with the quality rotation and great bullpen should comprise the team to beat in the National League East.