This offseason started off with a lot of fanfare for the Mets world, what with the hiring of Sandy Alderson and Terry Collings (as well as prominent pieces of the front office), but quickly became very quiet as the club failed to sign any high-profile free agents.* Yet, as spring arrives, hope springs eternal
*Assuming you don't consider Boof Bonser and Ronny Paulino high-profile. Didn't think so.
Coming off a less-than-stellar 2010 campaign, the question abound: Has the club improved? Is there a reason to watch the Mets anymore? Should I just give up and throw my TV out the window?
Let's section off the team into 3 categories: The Betters, The Equals and the Worses. Then we can reasonably analyze the team as a whole.
First for the batting order:
Catcher:
I don't think anybody's going to mistake Josh Thole for Johnny Bench, but the Mets should be significantly improved at catcher. Rod Barajas, who, let's not forget, had a fantastic start to the season last year, became very mediocre much too soon. His OPS+ with the Mets was a weak 82; his on-base percentage was an abysmal .263.
Josh Thole's minor league OBP was .376; his big league OBP, so far, is .357. He doesn't provide much power, and is certainly an unproven entity. But he was probably the Mets' best catcher last year. And if he can play more this year than last (as is expected), the team should be improved.
Second Base:
Second base was a really interesting position for the 2010 Mets. It was basically occupied by an under-performing Luis Castillo, an aged Alex Cora and an (not surprisingly) inoffensive Ruben Tejada. Castillo probably had the best offensive season of the lot, even with his OPS+ of 68.*
* Now do you remember why last year wasn't fun?
This year, we can expect somebody to provide more offense than was provided last year. Brad Emaus and Daniel Murphy are currently vying for the position along with Castillo. Whoever wins the job is likely to be better than the 2010 second basemen.
Left Field:
In my opinion, this one's pretty simple. Jason Bay underperformed so significantly last year that we can expect marked improvement.
Right Field:
Jeff Francoeur started over 100 games for last year's Mets at an offensive position without maintaining a .240 batting average or .295 OBP. Wow!
The hope is that Carlos Beltran will play right field for the Mets this year. While he's been around forever, Carlos Beltran is not really an old man, even in baseball terms. Over the last three years he's OPS+d 129 (for the entire 3-year span) and made an All-Star team. He might not be quite that good anymore. But 100 games from him should be a whole lot more valuable than 100 from Frenchy.
My gut tells me Ike Davis will do better this year. Knowing where he'll be all year (Flushing) would be expected to help him, as would the familiarity to the National League pitchers which he should have already developed, somewhat. But I looked him up, and most of his closest comps actually had worse batting years than those they had at 23. Let's call it a draw.
Shortstop and Third Base:
Familiar faces David Wright and Jose Reyes will be manning these positions for what'll be their eighth year together. Each is coming off a decent (Reyes) or good (Wright) year. Each was far from their career peak in 2010 (production-wise). Each is at an age where neither significant decline or ascent of numbers can reasonably be expected.
We can hope that Reyes, at least, will outperform his 2010 season. But we can't really count on it.
Coming off a less-than-stellar 2010 campaign, the question abound: Has the club improved? Is there a reason to watch the Mets anymore? Should I just give up and throw my TV out the window?
Let's section off the team into 3 categories: The Betters, The Equals and the Worses. Then we can reasonably analyze the team as a whole.
First for the batting order:
The Betters:
Catcher:
I don't think anybody's going to mistake Josh Thole for Johnny Bench, but the Mets should be significantly improved at catcher. Rod Barajas, who, let's not forget, had a fantastic start to the season last year, became very mediocre much too soon. His OPS+ with the Mets was a weak 82; his on-base percentage was an abysmal .263.
Josh Thole's minor league OBP was .376; his big league OBP, so far, is .357. He doesn't provide much power, and is certainly an unproven entity. But he was probably the Mets' best catcher last year. And if he can play more this year than last (as is expected), the team should be improved.
Second Base:
Second base was a really interesting position for the 2010 Mets. It was basically occupied by an under-performing Luis Castillo, an aged Alex Cora and an (not surprisingly) inoffensive Ruben Tejada. Castillo probably had the best offensive season of the lot, even with his OPS+ of 68.*
* Now do you remember why last year wasn't fun?
This year, we can expect somebody to provide more offense than was provided last year. Brad Emaus and Daniel Murphy are currently vying for the position along with Castillo. Whoever wins the job is likely to be better than the 2010 second basemen.
Left Field:
In my opinion, this one's pretty simple. Jason Bay underperformed so significantly last year that we can expect marked improvement.
Right Field:
Jeff Francoeur started over 100 games for last year's Mets at an offensive position without maintaining a .240 batting average or .295 OBP. Wow!
The hope is that Carlos Beltran will play right field for the Mets this year. While he's been around forever, Carlos Beltran is not really an old man, even in baseball terms. Over the last three years he's OPS+d 129 (for the entire 3-year span) and made an All-Star team. He might not be quite that good anymore. But 100 games from him should be a whole lot more valuable than 100 from Frenchy.
The Equals:
First Base:My gut tells me Ike Davis will do better this year. Knowing where he'll be all year (Flushing) would be expected to help him, as would the familiarity to the National League pitchers which he should have already developed, somewhat. But I looked him up, and most of his closest comps actually had worse batting years than those they had at 23. Let's call it a draw.
Shortstop and Third Base:
Familiar faces David Wright and Jose Reyes will be manning these positions for what'll be their eighth year together. Each is coming off a decent (Reyes) or good (Wright) year. Each was far from their career peak in 2010 (production-wise). Each is at an age where neither significant decline or ascent of numbers can reasonably be expected.
We can hope that Reyes, at least, will outperform his 2010 season. But we can't really count on it.
Center Field:
Angel Pagan is no longer a young, toolsy outfielder who'd probably never reach his potential. He's now a 29 year old excellent defensive outfielder who's put up a 113 OPS+ over the last two years (in over 1,000 plate appearances). There's no reason to expect decline
Keep posted for the Pitching and Bench portion of this post, as well as the final tally.
Angel Pagan is no longer a young, toolsy outfielder who'd probably never reach his potential. He's now a 29 year old excellent defensive outfielder who's put up a 113 OPS+ over the last two years (in over 1,000 plate appearances). There's no reason to expect decline
Keep posted for the Pitching and Bench portion of this post, as well as the final tally.
