Queens Qrew

Spring Forward - Starting Lineup

2011-03-11T02:01:00.000-05:00

The ground might be white in New York, but in Florida it's green and March. That's another way of saying that Spring Training is here. And about time!

This offseason started off with a lot of fanfare for the Mets world, what with the hiring of Sandy Alderson and Terry Collings (as well as prominent pieces of the front office), but quickly became very quiet as the club failed to sign any high-profile free agents.* Yet, as spring arrives, hope springs eternal

*Assuming you don't consider Boof Bonser and Ronny Paulino high-profile. Didn't think so.

Coming off a less-than-stellar 2010 campaign, the question abound: Has the club improved? Is there a reason to watch the Mets anymore? Should I just give up and throw my TV out the window?

Let's section off the team into 3 categories: The Betters, The Equals and the Worses. Then we can reasonably analyze the team as a whole.

First for the batting order:

The Betters:

Catcher:
I don't think anybody's going to mistake Josh Thole for Johnny Bench, but the Mets should be significantly improved at catcher. Rod Barajas, who, let's not forget, had a fantastic start to the season last year, became very mediocre much too soon. His OPS+ with the Mets was a weak 82; his on-base percentage was an abysmal .263.

Josh Thole's minor league OBP was .376; his big league OBP, so far, is .357. He doesn't provide much power, and is certainly an unproven entity. But he was probably the Mets' best catcher last year. And if he can play more this year than last (as is expected), the team should be improved.

Second Base:
Second base was a really interesting position for the 2010 Mets. It was basically occupied by an under-performing Luis Castillo, an aged Alex Cora and an (not surprisingly) inoffensive Ruben Tejada. Castillo probably had the best offensive season of the lot, even with his OPS+ of 68.*

* Now do you remember why last year wasn't fun?

This year, we can expect somebody to provide more offense than was provided last year. Brad Emaus and Daniel Murphy are currently vying for the position along with Castillo. Whoever wins the job is likely to be better than the 2010 second basemen.

Left Field:
In my opinion, this one's pretty simple. Jason Bay underperformed so significantly last year that we can expect marked improvement.

Right Field:
Jeff Francoeur started over 100 games for last year's Mets at an offensive position without maintaining a .240 batting average or .295 OBP. Wow!
The hope is that Carlos Beltran will play right field for the Mets this year. While he's been around forever, Carlos Beltran is not really an old man, even in baseball terms. Over the last three years he's OPS+d 129 (for the entire 3-year span) and made an All-Star team. He might not be quite that good anymore. But 100 games from him should be a whole lot more valuable than 100 from Frenchy.

The Equals:

First Base:
My gut tells me Ike Davis will do better this year. Knowing where he'll be all year (Flushing) would be expected to help him, as would the familiarity to the National League pitchers which he should have already developed, somewhat. But I looked him up, and most of his closest comps actually had worse batting years than those they had at 23. Let's call it a draw.

Shortstop and Third Base:
Familiar faces David Wright and Jose Reyes will be manning these positions for what'll be their eighth year together. Each is coming off a decent (Reyes) or good (Wright) year. Each was far from their career peak in 2010 (production-wise). Each is at an age where neither significant decline or ascent of numbers can reasonably be expected.

We can hope that Reyes, at least, will outperform his 2010 season. But we can't really count on it.

Center Field:
Angel Pagan is no longer a young, toolsy outfielder who'd probably never reach his potential. He's now a 29 year old excellent defensive outfielder who's put up a 113 OPS+ over the last two years (in over 1,000 plate appearances). There's no reason to expect decline

Keep posted for the Pitching and Bench portion of this post, as well as the final tally.

Thoughts on Alderson

2010-10-31T15:42:00.002-04:00

If I said it once, I said it, well, more than once: I thought that Omar Minaya (and especially) Jerry Manuel were being scapegoated (at least to some extent) by the people in charge. I'm not saying that no blame should be put on the people whose job it is to produce victories. I'm saying that using words like "unacceptable" and "anguish" about four seasons which included seasons with 88 and 89 wins, four seasons in which the Mets won over 50% of the time, was rather disingenuous.

Had ownership apologized for 2009 and 2010, year truly poor performance was displayed, I'd understand. Had ownership pled guilty for 4 consecutive playoff-less seasons, I might understand. But the way I read the letter they sent to fans on October 4, they were expressing "anguish" for the Mets performance since 2006. A period in which they won more than they lost! "Unhappiness"? Fine? "Unmet expectations?" Absolutely. But "anguish?" To me that's scapegoating.

Disingenuous or not, I think that ownership has done a good job of exciting a fan base which, let's be honest, has had rather little excitement in over 2 years.

Sandy Alderson, who as you've no doubt heard was recently named General Manager, has plenty of experience as a GM. Alderson was the architect of the great A's teams of the late 1980s and early 1990s, which contained stars such as Mark McGwire, Rickey Henderson, Jose Canseco and Dennis Eckersley, and reached the World Series three straight years (winning one).* He's known for respecting sabermetrics, and was a lawyer before he was the A's GM.

*He also hired Art Howe, for whatever that's worth.

I can't say I'm convinced that Omar should have been fired.* But when you take into account the intellect, experience and past success of Alderson (as well as the simple fact that he's a fresh face) I think that Sandy is the man for the job.

*I'm not convinced that he shouldn't have, either. I think that the argument GIVEN against him was weak; that's not to say that there was no good argument against him.

Hit-chiro

2010-10-10T19:36:00.002-04:00

For whatever reason, perfection or expertise in one particular field impresses people. A man can be a horrible person, feared by his peers and hated by acquaintances, but if his skill at one particular thing is prodigious, he will often be exalted, regardless of his many faults. The overlooking of his faults by society are not my point - I'm just trying to say that people get wowed by one aspect of a person and just zone in on that, forevermore.

Take Ichiro*. I'm not using him as somebody who has faults.** I'm using him as an example of somebody with a huge amount of single-facetedness. The single is his art, his distinct niche in the game of baseball. (It's certainly not his only skill, as he's an excellent outfielder and base stealer, but the single, an act which he performed 175 times this year***, is certainly what he's most distinctively great at.****)

*Yes. Everything leads to Ichiro.

**Though, naturally, I assume he does. I just don't know them.

***And an average of 182.5 times over his ten-year career.

****Quite simply, we've seen base-stealers like Ichiro in Jose Reyes, strong-armed outfielders like him in Jeff Francoeur (and that's just on the 2010 Mets), but no bat-slapping singles-hitting phenoms akin to Ichiro.

I noted last year (here) that Ichiro had never been lower than (tied for) second place in hits in the major leagues since he joined them in 2001. With 2010 in the books, I (not surprisingly) noticed that he had once again led the major leagues in hits. Here's the more surprising thing: He's now led the American League in hits for five consecutive years. Take a guess at how many people have led the league in hits for that many consecutive years. I'll wait.*

*I guessed one: Ty Cobb.

Nobody, that's how many.*
Wrong.

Just one of the many reasons to be a Mariners fan!*
*Yes, that was a joke.

The Good, The Bad and The Precedent

2010-10-02T22:57:00.017-04:00

As the 2010 season melts in the 2010 post-season with the Mets missing - again - the time has certainly come to reflect upon the 2010 season; a season of failed promise, questionable injuries, and youthful enthusiasm, leading - after six months and 162 gmaes - to nothing. Some would say 2010 personified what the Mets are: A lot of hoopla for little substance, a mediocre team with a managerial and hierarchical mess. In a word, a laughingstock.

But along with the Bizarre and Ugly came a fair share of Promise and Future. The 2010 Mets are dead, but the Mets are far from that demise. Here's a recap of the good, the bad and the precedent as the leaves turn red, the grass white, and the windshields frosty:

THE GOOD:

The good for the Mets in 2010 was, to a large extent, divided into two categories: Bounceback and Youth.

Bounceback

After an injury-riddled 2009, the Mets brought many questions into the 2010 season: Could Jose Reyes remain healthy and effective for a whole season? Was Johan Santana, after another surgery, still the phenomenal pitcher that came over from the Twins? Could David Wright, after a weak power year and a terrifying beaning in 2009, return in '10 as the force that he'd been in the 2000s? All those questions were answered affirmatively, bringing joy for the present and expectation for the future.

Youth

What's worse than a losing baseball team? A losing baseball team composed of has-beens.* Youthful energy on a ballclub - even a rather bad one - provides excitement to the fans, and a sense of optimism for a brighter future, too. Ike Davis and his fine play at first base, Josh Thole and his neat work behind the plate, both look to have bright futures with the Mets for the betterment of the team and their careers. Ruben Tejada, Jon Niese and Chris Carter, similarly, all played nicely in trial runs, and look to have shots at cracking the 2010 roster (particularly Niese). Thought hardly youthful (he turns 36 this month) R.A. Dickey and his utterly effective knuckleball also provide hope for Met fans, and as such belongs in this category.

*The prime example of a "losing baseball team composed of has-beens" is the 2002 Mets. That 75-win squad that got Bobby Valentine fired had on its roster has-beens Roberto Alomar, Rey Ordonez, Roger Cedeno, Jeromy Burnitz, Mo Vaughn as well as Pedro Astacio, Jeff D'Amico and Shawn Estes. Brutal.

THE BAD:
Where to begin? The bad is basically comprised of the "bad contracts" and "underperforming incumbents."

Bad Contracts
Over the course of this season, three (rather) long-term contracts seemed to bite the Mets.

Oliver Perez, the prime culprit, gave significant angst to Mets fans whenever he took the mound. His ineffectiveness was consistent, and he probably was the least popular among all the players on the squad (while being paid $12 million).

Luis Castillo, the veteran second baseman who had a resurgence last year, performed pretty poorly this year. While his athletic suffering was not even close to that suffered by Perez, he was quite ineffective this year, sporting a .235 batting average and an OPS+ of 68. His quality 2009 season notwithstanding, Castillo's contract seems rather heavy.

The third and least guilty large contract-bearer is Jason Bay*. Bay signed with the Mets last offseason and performed below expectations. Luckily for Bay, with three years left on his deal, he has the possibility of making everyone forget about this season by playing well in the future.

*Why is Bay least guilty?

When you get down to it - and ignore the high expectations - Bay did not have a bad season, as illustrated by his adequate defense and 105 OPS+. Is that the production that the Mets expected when they gave him a $66 million contract? Certainly not. But, honestly, it's far from dreadful. (Well better, for example, than Jeff Francoeur.)

Under-performing Incumbents
While some players on the Mets, like Johan Santana and David Wright, performed quite well, others' performances left a lot to be desired. Jeff Francoeur, Carlos Beltran, Fernando Tatis, and John Maine, were all supposed to be big parts of a quality 2010 New York Mets team. Yet, between injuries (to three of them), and general under-production (by all four), the Mets post-season chances were swept away, like shards of glass after an earthquake, deliberately and unpleasantly.

THE PRECEDENT

So, what's next? How will the Mets perform next year?

- The Mets finished 79-83 this year, the first time they won precisely 79 games in a year.

- The Mets improved by 9 games from last years's 70 wins. The only other time the Mets improved by exactly 9 games was in 1999, when they won 97 games (to their 88 in 1998) and lost the National League Championship Series to the Braves.

- This year's team won 79 games, an improvement of 9; the 2004 Mets won 71 games, an improvement of 5; the 2005 Mets won 83 games an improvement of 12. When the Mets won the division in 2006, they were just one year removed from '05 and two from '06.

Are the Mets in a similar position to the one they were in in 2004 or 2005? It's hard to say. The 2005 team was loaded with young talent (Reyes, Wright, Beltran). However, the current Mets are not exactly slackers in that area, with Ike Davis, Jon Niese and Josh Thole looking to have significant, and promising, future roles with the club.

And maybe, just maybe, the Mets will fall into some luck for a change. Maybe the new General Manager will prove himself to be an adept trader. Maybe some players who seem done, like Luis Castillo, Jason Bay and K-Rod, still have some life in them.

If you're a saddened Met fan, there's still some room for hope.

Gee Willigers

2010-09-08T01:20:00.006-04:00

It isn't really easy to impress a New Yorker*, but Dillon Gee has, seemingly, accomplished that not-too-easy trick. In what was apparently unprecedented in Mets history, last night marked the first Mets game in which both starting pitchers (Mets and opposition) were pitching in their major league debuts.

*So, there's a guy on the window 60 stories up? And that's why you interrupted my mustard-smearing?!

Dillon Gee was drafted by the Mets in 2007 (well after Eddie Kunz and Lucas Duda) and pitched quite well in 62 innings in Brooklyn. Over the following three years, he pitched for St. Lucie, Binghampton and Buffalo, pitching exclusively as a starter (in quite limited action in 2009, due to an injury). In 2010, Gee impressed, with 165 strikeouts in 161.1 innings, 13 wins, and a strikeout to walk ratio of over 4.

Interestingly enough, for a pitcher who just made his major league debut, Gee's ERA has risen in every year of his professional career, but last night's game was something more than a mirage. Gee was both good and efficient, holding the Nationals to one run in 7 innings on 2 hits and 3 walks, while collecting five strikeouts and throwing just 86 pitches. For a Met team and fanbase that can't help but be down in the dumps, Gee's excellence has to be a beacon of hope for the future.

In a somewhat interesting sidenote, while it was Gee's first major league game, he must have hardly felt out of place; 5 of the 8 other players in the Mets starting lineup played with him in Buffalo this year, as did both pinch hitters and one of the three Met relievers.

While the Mets season seems to be over, their life as a franchise is, likely, not. More than just kinship to Dillon Gee, the Mets rather nice collection of young talent, from Ike Davis and Bobby Parnell, to Lucas Duda and Jon Niese, should inspire hope among Mets faithful, however blue (or orange) 2010 (and, yes, '09, '08, etc.) make them feel.

History Note of the Day: In 1983, the Mets were 68-94 (and dead last in the league in attendance). They stank, sure, but in that pile of stink were Darryl Strawberry, Keith Hernandez, Jesse Orosco, Mookie Wilson and other who would bring them to, shall we say, a somewhat more respectable position in the baseball universe.

In 1984, the Mets won 90 games, came in second, and would have been the wild card team, had the slot been invented.

Gee, that sounds good.

All-Star Outfielder Picked up at the Trade Deadline

2010-08-01T01:54:00.005-04:00

Carlos Beltran is not a free-agent acquisition, nor is he playing in 2010 like an All-Star. (In fact, his offense this year has been too close to non-existent.) But if you have any belief at all in the concept of history repeating itself, you’ve got to be expecting good things from the man.

For a moment, let’s make believe you don’t know who Carlos Beltran is. Well, I’ll tell you. He’s a 33-year-old centerfielder who is seemingly somewhat past very prime. (He’s not exactly old, but he’s not 26, either.) On his resume reside a Rookie of the Year award, five All-Star games, three Gold Gloves, two Silver Sluggers and two Fielding Bible awards. He has a career .282/.359/.495 batting line (118 OPS+), has topped 25 home runs six times, and has had seven seasons with 100 runs scored and eight with 100 RBI. According to baseball-reference.com, three of his top five similar batters are Hall of Famers (Andre Dawson, Dave Winfield, Billy Williams; Shawn Green and Bobby Bonds round out the group).

Which is all to say that Carlos Beltran is really, really good. Now, granted, most of that’s history. But Babe Ruth’s career up to 33 was all history, too, and all he did to that history was add four 40 home runs seasons to it. Ted Williams’ two MVPs and two wars were history when he was 33; all he did was add two batting titles and three league leaderships in intentional walks (and OPS+ over 200 three times in rather full seasons).

Beltran is 33, not 53. He may be a shell of his former self, but I think he’s still a darn good shell. Having barely played in the last year, is Beltran rusty? Probably. But wait for the rust to wear off, and see what shines underneath. It may be a diamond.

And seriously, even if it isn’t, would your really rather see Jeff Francoeur out there?

Taking Stock

2010-08-01T01:50:00.002-04:00

The 2010 season is past the actual and theoretical halfway points, and a look at the baseball* world brings a lot of surprises: The Royals stink, the Giants have good pitching, the Yankees are in first place - oh, surprises? Not so much.

I mean, most people would probably have pegged the Red Sox at less than 7 games back, and I certainly didn't expect to hear this much Angel Pagan-lauding, but like a Hershey's bar and a tank of gas, the first four months of this baseball game have basically given you what you expected.**

*I'm going to congratulate myself right here for remembering that August 1 is Mike Piazza's birthday. I must say, however, that I'd probably be congratulating myself somewhat more heartily if it were actually, you know, his birthday. In fact, I'm off by more than a month, as his birthday isn't until September 12. Stay young, Mike.

**The All-Star Game notwithstanding.

The Mets, as might’ve been expected, were neither laughably bad nor haughtily good in the first 4 months of the season,* and the time period has yielded surprises both good (Mike Pelfrey can pitch) and bad (no he can’t), but the Mets when all is said and done, are – and this really feels exciting after the meaningful-game drought that was 2009 – in the hunt.

*Honestly, that’s not true. They were both laughably bad AND haughtily good. But their season thus far has been neither.

I’m not going to say that at 6.5 games back of the wild card the Mets have a real good shot at winning, but I think the current angle for any Met-minded person has got to be, “Well, we’ve got a much better shot than seven back with seventeen to play, right?”

Which they do.

Is that really Jermaine to the Matter?

2010-07-02T00:32:00.005-04:00

Like professionals in many industries*, performers in the field of sport often don't know when to stop. Fans of baseball are no strangers to this social fact. In his last year, Babe Ruth batted .181,** about half of his lifetime .342 average. Willie Mays hit .211 with 6 home runs in close to half a year's worth of games in 1973. Bob Gibson went 5-10 with an ERA over 5 in his last year, 1975. Christy Mathewson was 12-18 with an ERA+ of 74 in his last two years (1915-1916). The names abound. Three-Finger Brown. Lefty Gomez. Robin Roberts. Lou Gehrig. All these men were clearly overmatched before they decided to retire.***

*Think Richard Nixon.

**Though, with a 118 OPS+.

***There have certainly been exceptions. Joe Dimaggio, Hank Greenberg and Tom Seaver were notable players who defied this rule, but the exceptions illustrate the rule.

Were they trying to hold onto the fame that they'd acquired, feeling that retirement would propel them into an abyss of depression? Perhaps. Were they, realizing that their livelihood was nearing its end, desperately trying to stick around and make as much money as possible? Perhaps. Were they, like nearly every other member of the human race, unwilling to admit that age had caught up with them? Perhaps. Were they simply continuing the course of work that they had been involved in for most of their lives? Perhaps.

But when you get down to it, many athletes, many people, stick around at their trade until they embarrass themselves and those who must watch them.

Which brings me to Jermaine Dye.

Coming off a 2009 season in which he batted .250/.340/.453 (103 OPS+), Jermaine Dye found himself without whatever he deemed an "appropriate" job offer. His hitting last year was not without value. Had he made a statement in which he said something about being less than 2 years removed from a 34 home run season, well, that would be a nice marketing job. Had he said something about being less than 4 years removed from a 44 home run season, well, that would seem rather weak, if not entirely irrelevant.

But, no. According to this, Dye said (in February) “It has only been 41/2 years since I was the World Series MVP.” Which, seriously, says just about nothing.

Honestly, for a man who got some MVP consideration in 2008, is he really attempting to get a job because of a good week (4 games, by the way) he had in 2005?

I don't know about you, but if I were him, I'd be talking about the 133 homers I hit from 2006-2009, not the four-game set in Fall 2005 in which I hit one.

Who's Got The Dough?

2010-06-16T02:49:00.003-04:00

There's a time and place for everything, and considering the hour, this is not the time for blogging.

Yet, I'd just like to point out that the 6 most highly-paid players in baseball play in.........New York.*

*What were you expecting - Kansas City?

Taser

2010-05-13T18:17:00.003-04:00

For the most part, I keep my nose (or, at least, my blog's nose) out of the realm of politics. And, for the time being, that will continue.

So, no political implications should be taken from this link. But I do urge you to read it and laugh.

Consistent Inconsistency

2010-05-13T18:04:00.002-04:00

Do you know what it means to be busy? Good. Because now I have a lot less to explain about why I haven't been posting.

The Mets now stand at 18-16 on the season, 2.5 games out of first place (they're behind the Phillies and the Nationals). Coming after last year, it's kind of a breath of fresh air, because while the Mets are not doing all that well (and are EXTREMELY streaky) they're doing alright and hanging in there in the divisional race.

I don't know if this is good or bad, but it seems like nearly everybody's either really good or really bad. David Wright, Jeff Francoeur, and Jose Reyes headline a crew that is either doing nothing or everything right.* The rotation has seen no-one in complete command. Mike Pelfrey, who started this season in nice fashion, has now put together two far-from-quality starts out of his last three. I'm not saying there's cause for concern - though health concerns may exist - I'm just saying that (while baseball's long season almost requires inconsistency over the long haul, it seems like) the 2010 Mets are consistently inconsistent.

* I say this on an individual basis. Players are streaky, but they are not coordinating with one another.

Not good; not bad. Weird.

On the Upcoming Season

2010-03-28T23:27:00.003-04:00

Opening Day's about a week away, and it's time to look at the upcoming season - in foresight - and make some predictions. They're going to be wrong - heck, they're always wrong, but what're you worth if you can't make mistakes on your own blog?

I'm going to go position by position, and give my ratings, both objective and subjective (as compared with the 2009 Mets).

Catcher - Rod Barajas is hardly somebody to write home about, but compared with either Brian Schneider or Bengie Molina at five times the price, his acquistion was a quite logical move by the Mets.

He should provide some pop, but his high in OBP (for a full season) is .306. Last year it was .258.

First Base - Daniel Murphy should be better this year than last year for a few reasons:

1. Age - He's about to turn 25, and is probably getting better.
2. More experience should make him a better first baseman
3. More experience should make him a better hitter.

So, yes, I think he's going to be better than he was last year. In a league with Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez, Lance Berkman and Ryan Howard as other first basemen, I'd give Murphy a very slim chance to make the All-Star team.

Second Base - Luis Castillo's signing has been widely scoffed at by the world at large. And I'm not here to defend it. But according to fangraphs.com, Castillo was worth more than what he made last year. If he's similar to what he was in 2009, he'll be quite serviceable. But, at his age, decline is to be expected. Still, if he's close to last year, it'll be hard to keep complaining about Luis's contract.

Third Base - David Wright had (statistically) a freakishly weird season last year. A lot of people expect his power to rebound. Personally, I'd be surprised if he hits 10 (or fewer) homers in 2010, but without knowing why he hit so few home runs last year, I can't quite convince myself that he'll hit 30 this year.

The thing is, even if he loses his power stroke completeley, like last year, he's still an extremely good baseball player. His fielding, batting and baserunning are all quite good. He's just not MVP-caliber without the power, but he's still excellent.

Left Field - Jason Bay will probably (i.e. he'd better) hit better than 2009 Met left-fielders, and I think he'll field out there a lot better than Daniel Murphy, too. The guy's good.*

Center Field - Carlos Beltran will probably be back soon and have a phenomenal year. He's going to knock over 25 home runs and he's going to have over 100 RBIs. And play Gold Glove defense. He's probably the best center fielder in baseball. And in the last 12 seasons, he's been caught stealing 38 times.

Right Field - Jeff Francoeur leaves, I suppose, some room for hope. I'm probably least optimistic about his upcoming year than I am with any other Met.

*And for all those who like to point at his 36 home runs last year being in his first full year with the Red Sox, he only hit 15 home runs at Fenway Park. And only 2 were at Yankee Stadium.

That's it for the starting lineup. No guarantees, but pitchers, the bench and that ever-elusive might fast shortstop may follow in a future post.

On Fernando Martinez

2010-03-08T15:32:00.002-05:00

Fernando Martinez is something (or, perhaps, someone) that I have spent some time thinking about. Obviously, it's way too early to know what will become of him, and I think that a lot of Mets fan were rather disappointed in the way that he performed in his tours of duty in 2009. Which is understandable. When your number one prospect is struggling to approach .200 and has an OPS+ of 38 (Johan Santana OPS+d 33 last year), discouragement is a rather natural reaction.

Here's the thing. Fernando was just 20 years old last year and was the second youngest player in the National League. (Giants pitcher Madison Bumgarnerthe youngest). He couldn't really have been expected to flourish at such a young age (and with the dearth of AAA experience that he had) at the major league level.

Also, and I thought this was very encouraging, Martinez could field quite well. Often, a player is touted as a five-tool prospect, yet he lacks the instincts to playe the field well. (Lastings Milledge is a textbook example of this .) This doesn't* seem to be the case with Martinez.

Now he just needs to hit.

* Fangraphs.com is not all that happy with Martinez's fielding, but it's a small sample size, and as such, I think we can ignore it for the time being (i.e. until the sample size grows).

Officially Psyched

2010-03-02T20:30:00.002-05:00

It's Spring Training in Port St. Lucie, and hope is in the air. Hope for a fresh season. Hope for an about-face by those Mets. Hope for summer.

No, I'm not going there. Enough of that is written by, like, people who write that type of stuff. I'm not necessarily against the "hope"y slant, but I think it's overdone. Here's the problem - perhaps more than most previous years, I really feel it.

Reyes hitting a triple, Jon Niese saying that he's fine, a little battle for the first base position, Fernando Tatis breaking in all his gloves (it was third base yesterday, what do you think it'll be tomorrow?)...what can I say? As I sit in the snow in New York (and if you're not around here, it's A LOT of snow) things are just looking up -- way up.

And I don't care if it's too poetic. That's how I feel!

Golf Point: There's a headline on ESPN.com reading "Report: Tiger at home, getting into golf shape." Now, I don't consider myself a golf expert by any means, but isn't the whole point of golf that you don't need to be in shpae to play it?

Maybe I'm wrong, but that's kind of what I thought.

Who's on First?

2010-02-16T22:18:00.002-05:00

Apparently, the Mets have first base up for grabs between Mike Jacobs and Daniel Murphy. Depending on his (and whoever wins the job's) production as the season wears on, Fernando Tatis figures to see a reasonable amount of playing time - at least against left-handed starting pitchers.

If you ask me, Daniel Murphy has to be given the upper hand. Mike Jacobs has had his shot - and he hasn't done much with it. People have gone from really high on Daniel Murphy to really low on him - both on offense and on defense - in the space of a relatively short period of time. Now he's hardly a fan-favorite, but you've got to remember - the guy has had less than 650 at bats. I know some people have given up on him,but I just don't get it.

On a somewhat different note, in case you're wondering just how the at-bats will be divvied, I did a little research on the primary candidates for first base.

Fernando Tatis performs slightly better against lefties than righties. The difference is rather slight, but it is there. Fernando is basically Todd Walker against righties and Kevin Millar against lefties.

Daniel Murphy has hit better, though not drastically, against righties than lefties. His power, however, is virtually the same either way (and his isolated slugging is higher against lefties). Against righties, Murphy is basically Eric Hinske, and against lefties he's pretty close to Juan Uribe.

Mike Jacobs is much, much better against right-handers than against lefties. Against righties, Jacobs is basically Alfonso Soriano; against lefties he's not (as crazy as this sounds) so much better than Rey Ordonez (he's got a lot more power, but doesn't get on base as much).

What does this mean? Well, technically, nothing - it's all history. If Mike Jacobs hits like it's 2005 again, no-one will care that he couldn't hit for beans last year or against lefties in 2010. If Daniel Murphy turns into Keith Hernandez, yeah, I think New York would be content. If Fernando Tatis hits like Bill Clinton was still president the Mets might just win the National League.

But, as occurs with any history-related findings, the past can give us a window to the future. Cats don't usually fly. Pumpkins don't turn into carriages. And the Mets depending on Fernando Tatis to hold down first base or Mike Jacobs to hit left-handed pitching is nearly the equivalent of putting a nail in that coffin labeled 2010.

Their hope just may lie in the person of Daniel Murphy.

Bases on Balls

2010-01-29T12:28:00.001-05:00

Sky Andrechek, here, writes about the statistical revolution in baseball and how it is not really affecting the on-field play. As such, he opines, fans who would like to ignore sabermetrics can do so, even with their eyes open.

One of the things he writes is that walks have not gone up since the publication of Moneyball in 2003. Which doesn't seem like a proof to me.

Sabermetrics attempt to find objective truth in baseball. The traditional view was that batters who "luckily" walked should not be rewarded for the pitcher's inability to throw strikes. Of course, a base on balls is not actually a construction of the pitcher. But on the other hand, it is not entirely a construction of the batter.

Andrechek (and others) have noted that walks have not gone up in the last several years. I'm not sure why you'd expect them to have done so. True, batters are now more aware of the value of the walk; organizations are telling them of it. But pitchers are now aware of the danger of the walk, and, I'm sure, are more hesitant about issuing free passes to those who'd like them.

With one group trying to increase walks and one trying to decrease them, one can hardly express surprise when the numbers don't change.

Mystifying

2010-01-26T10:05:00.004-05:00

The Mets, as you no doubt know, traded reliever Brian Stokes to the Angels for outfielder Gary Matthews, Jr. The move was clearly in part due to the fact that Carlos Beltran, of late knee surgery, is expected to be out for around a month at the beginning of the season.

Gary Matthews is not a very good ballplayer at the Major League level. In about half a season's work last year, he had 4 home runs, a .250 batting average and OPS+d 83. In 2008, he had 8 home runs, a .242 average and a 77 OPS+.

Sabermetrics are a hot topic in baseball today, but I think it's pretty clear that all the complicated formulas (or at least most of them) have some use. Perfection may not exist*, but I think that at the very least they provide insight into baseball.

* For example, many point out that while on-base abilities and slugging abilities are not equally valuable, they are counted equally in OPS.

Fangraphs.com assigns a value to every baseball player, based on offense, defense, baserunning and defensive position. In 2009, according to their calculations Matthews was worth negative 3.8 million dollars. In 2008, negative 3.6. And he's not at an age where improvement can be expected - he's 35 years old!

Stokes, on the other hand, was (according to Fangraphs) worth 0.6 million dollars in 2008 and negative 1.0 million last year. His ERA+ were 120 and 104. At 30, he's also significantly younger than Matthews, and as such, less likely to decline in 2010.

It's hard to believe that the Mets could not acquire a backup outfielder without giving up a decent bullpen arm.

Remember, they have Angel Pagan, who should be able to play the bulk of the time until Beltran gets back. So what the Mets seemingly acquired is a backup outfielder for a month. Fernando Martinez could probably perform those duties. Heck, for a couple of games, the Mets could put Nick Evans in left and Bay in center, forfeiting nothing out of the bullpen.

Or, even further out of the box, perhaps David Wright could man center field for a spell. (There were rumors about a potential move to the outfield when Alex Rodriguez declared free agency in 2007.)

One of the few redeeming qualities about the 2009 New York Mets was its quite decent bullpen. Messing with it more than is necessary seems questionable.

"Lots of Passed Balls"

2010-01-19T22:16:00.004-05:00

As Casey Stengel said, "If you don't have a catcher, you'll have lots of passed balls."

Bengie Molina, who nearly everyone thought the Mets were going for, is now off the market, having been re-signed by the San Francisco Giants.

As things stand, the Mets starting catcher is probably Omir Santos. Which is terrible. Or is it?

Last year, Bengie Molina threw out 23% of would-be base stealers. Santos threw out 30%. Molina OPS+d 86; Santos 82. Molina obviously has much more of track record, but Santos is at a much more favorable place, age-wise.

When you consider that Molina would have cost the Mets more (probably much more) than 4 million dollars more than Santos, I don't think it's a bad choice.

Particularly if they put that money into the pitching staff.

Because with bad hurlers, you get a lot of wild pitches.

On Mark McGwire

2010-01-18T21:10:00.001-05:00

You may be sick of reading about Mark McGwire's confession about steroids. And I'm not writing about that (not now, anyway).

I want to talk for a moment about his non-confession in 2005 in front of a Congressional Committee. Mark famously said "I'm not here to talk about the past," for which he has been roundly bashed.

Obviously, Mark, you're not here to talk about the past. That's why you're discussing it!

And I've said similar things, myself. But honestly, what did you want him to say?

There are two other options:

1. A lie
2. The truth

Well, it's pretty clear that his statement was better than option 1, so it really comes down to option 2. I mean, he clearly didn't want to admit his steroid usage. He wasn't going to do it, so he took the only way out.

Sure he came out looking like an idiot. But this man's not being investigated for perjury.

Jack Morris - Hall of Famer?

2010-01-04T15:08:00.001-05:00

Among the many things that inspire vociferous debates of baseball - and there are many - resides the ever-present Hall of Fame talk. Who should go in, and who shouldn't. I've given my thoughts (here) on Mark McGwire, and now I'd like to delve into a few of the other popular candidates.

Firstly, Jack Morris. 44% of voters last year believed that Jack Morris belongs in the Hall of Fame. And he's got quite a fan club among non-baseball writers, too. He is acknowledged as a gamer, a man who could give you that win when you really needed it, and is considered a great postseason pitcher.

The problem? He's just not Hall of Fame quality. I've read various things about his candidacy and have never seen this essential fact: If Jack Morris gets elected to the Hall of Fame, he will have the highest ERA of any Hall of Fame pitcher. I'm not trying to disrespect him here - obviously, with 44% of voters voting for him, he was a really good, quality, effective pitcher. But if elected to the Hall of Fame, there's no doubt that Morris would be lowering the proverbial bar.

You don't like ERA? In terms of ERA+, if elected, Morris would have the third lowest - behind only Catfish Hunter and Rube Marquard. So he wouldn't be the worst in terms of that. But, I mean, you have to see what I'm getting at. He doesn't make the cut.

Maybe if you think about his all-time numbers, you'll get my point. Among all pitchers with at least 1,000 innings, Morris is ... tied for 469th in ERA+. In ERA (also with a minimum of 1,000 innings), he's 732nd. I'm not saying that Morris is the 732nd best pitcher in baseball history. Or the 469th. Don't get me wrong - close to 4,000 innings pitched with an ERA 5% above average is quite good. I just don't think it's worthy of the Hall of Fame.

Flushing's Bay

2009-12-29T23:29:00.002-05:00

Reportedly, the Mets have reached a deal with Jason Bay, formerly of the Boston Red Sox and the Pittsburgh Pirates.Bay has been a perennial offensive force in the National (and more recently) and American leagues. His fielding and baserunning are both subpar, but for the Mets, a team sorely lacking in the power department, Bay seems to be a part of the solution.

* * *

Here's the thing: The Mets shouldn't (nor, I think, do they) think that this is it. The starting rotation last year was weak, when healthy. Importing a pitcher seems to be a necessity if the Mets expect to contend. I thought the pitcher who made the most sense was Jason Marquis. Apparently, either the Mets disagree, or they don't find acquiring another starter necessary.

On that side of the debate stand the facts that:

1. While only winning 70 games, the Mets' pitching overall was not horrendous. They gave up the 9th most runs in the league. Nothing to write home about, but not horrible.
2. Santana is expected to be healthy all year. That should save some runs.
3. Mike Pelfrey, after showing that he has true major league capabilities in 2008 can hardly be as bad (or, really nearly as bad) as he was last year. Also, his strikeouts per nine innings were up (a
bit) and his batting average allowed on balls in play were up (a tick), which would both seem to indicate optimisim for 2010.
4. Oliver Perez is not likely to be worth the $12 million that he'll be paid in 2010. He's also not likely to have an ERA over 6.80. (Yes. He was that bad.) There's no question that the amount of walks that Perez dispenses is alarming. However, in 2008 he had a 4.22 ERA. In 2007, he had a 3.56 ERA. I'm not willing to write off this man yet.
5. Jon Niese, who is recovering from that awful hamstring tear, could turn out to be a real stud. Supposedly, he will be ready for Spring Training, and he will, presumably be competing for a spot in the rotation. His numbers in the high minors were quite good.
6. Don't write off John Maine, either. His durability is a question mark - and that may have to be addressed - but not a definite no.

Okay, a lot of things have to go right. Maybe they will. I'm not going to say that I think all the optimism will convert itself into reality - I'm saying it's possible. And, remember, it's not like the Mets can expect to be so bad, even aside from the injuries. Honestly, Mike Pelfrey and Oliver Perez almost have to be much better pitchers this year.

Nevertheless, shoring up the back end of the rotation should be a priority. Chien-Ming Wang, at the right price, is exactly what this club needs. He certainly has the track record of being a much-better-than-effective major league starter. I don't know what was wrong with him last year. Mechanics? Mindset? Whatever. This guy seems to me to be the perfect kind of risk to take.

Also, don't kid yourself - the Phillies have question marks, too. How much does 37 year old Raul Ibanez have left in the tank? Can Cole Hamels turn his game around? What's left in Jaime Moyer's left arm?

You know, there's a really good reason for them to actually play these games!

Down but not Out - Edited

2009-12-21T22:20:00.003-05:00

Editor's Note: Now that John Lackey has been signed, this is partially dated. Partially. There is plenty of good sense in here.

The Mets have problems. Let's not beat around the bush. When the only team you finish ahead of is Washington, you know you have problems. When even Washington has two guys who put up numbers that are pretty clearly better than your best players, you know you have problems*. When your fans are getting excited by Angel Pagan, you have problems. When there are people calling in to radio stations about the Mets, and the biggest compliment they can give the 2009 team is "Luis Castillo really had a good year. He was healthy all year," it might be time to throw in the towel.

*Adam Dunn did not hit exactly 40 home runs this year for the first time since 2004.

Here's the problem with giving up on 2010: This team is too good. I know about the lack of power. I know about the inconsistent pitching. I know about the bizarre defense and the quirky injuries. But about those injuries: Did you know that in 2008 the Mets had 3 players with over 700 plate appearances. The 2009 team's leader was David Wright with 618. The entire team was injured. Even the aforementioned Luis Castillo missed a couple of games when he tripped down the dugout steps.

Jose Reyes, however, is one of the best shortstops in baseball. He played in 36 games. Carlos Beltran is probably the best center-fielder in baseball. He played in 81 games, half a year. Out of the Mets top 5 in plate appearances, two players - Fernando Tatis and Angel Pagan - were supposed to benchmen.

There is a lot of Met-brass-bashing right now on the Mets' failure to sign RHP John Lackey. The sentiment seems to be that, sure the Mets could use Jason Bay and some hitting. But what they need, what they truly require is John Lackey to shore up the tattered pitching rotation.

Which sounds like a reasonable position. Except that it doesn't make any sense.

There are various statistics with which one could measure effectiveness - both pitching-wise and hitting-wise. The one that combines simplicity and accuracy is runs. In 2009, the Mets were 12th (of 16) in the National League in runs scored, 47 runs less than league average. On the other hand, Mets pitchers were 9th in the league in runs allowed, still well below league average (by 30 runs), but closer to the pack. The Mets had weak (or at least far from great) pitching. But that hitting was even worse.

To tell you the truth, I'm not sure why nobody sees this. Maybe it was masked by the excellent batting average (the Mets led the league with a .270 average), but the Mets were a dreadful, horrible hitting team this year. They were last in home runs (by a healthy margin - 37 bombs), and 13th in walks* and slugging percentage.

* Welcome to Queens, Jeff Francoeur.

Oh, well Citi Field is a terrible hitter's ballpark! That's not clear either. The Mets hit more home runs, scored more runs, and hit for a better batting average at Citi Field than on the road. Could that have been a fluke? Certainly. But there's definitely no proof that Citi Field favors the pitchers.

The pitching was so bad last year that it's hard for me to believe that it wouldn't rebound. The hitting, meanwhile, was, in some cases, better than could have been expected. Angel Pagan, Omir Santos, and Jeff Francoeur were all probably better than could have been expected.

So, it seems as though what the club really needs is hitting - even more than it needs pitching. There's another reason that Bay would probably be a better pickup than Lackey: Bay just might be the better player.

The desire to acquire Lackey was simple: We have one really reliable starter (Santana) and even he is coming off an injury. We need another good pitcher. Lackey is the best free agent pitcher out there. Let's get him.

The push that was out there to get Lackey reminds me a little bit of the push a few years ago to get Barry Zito. Barry Zito was considered the best pitcher on the market and everyone said that the Mets should get him. Boras? Who cares about overpaying - WE NEED A PITCHER. The problem with this is that giving someone a reasonable salary will often mean overpaying him (if production should drop). If you overpay in the first place, that'll just make the problem bigger.

Lackey is a very good pitcher. He had one excellent season, 2007, when he placed third in the AL Cy Young balloting, and in every other year since 2005 he has been well above average.

Bay is a really, really good hitter. Perhaps the best way to compare these two is: Bay is a three-time All Star. Lackey is a one-time All Star. Granted, Bay was a Pirate. So, his All-Star appearances don't prove anything. But I think that in this specific instance the comparison works. Bay's career OPS+ is 131. Lackey's career ERA+ is 117.

Additionally, Lackey's excellence seems to be a thing of the past. Oh, he was certainly effective - much more than that - over the past two years. But his best numbers were accumulated from 2005-2007. On the other hand, Bay does not seem to be losing any (or practically any) of his quality. His numbers may have dipped slightly, but they're almost as good as ever.

Over the past two years Lackey has been in the top 10 in the league in a few categories - mostly peripheral (winning percentage), negative (hit by pitch) or practically irrelevant (his 1 shutout this year was good for seventh in the league), though he was 8th this year in Homers per 9 innings.

Bay, in 2009, was 10th in the AL in slugging, 9th in OPS, 6th in runs scored, 2nd in RBIs, third in homers, as well as seventh in offensive winning percentage. In 2008, he split leagues, but his cumulative totals (if accumulated in just the AL) were quite good. 10th in slugging, 8th in OPS, 3rd in runs, 10th in walks, and sixth in offensive winning percentage.

Bay's numbers are probably somewhat inflated by Fenway Park. But you should know that 21 of his 36 home runs this year came away from Fenway Park.

Anyway you cut it, the guy's a darn good hitter. And I think he's the better choice for the Mets (well, at this point, between him and Lackey he's the only choice).

Note: For the life of me, I can't figure out why the Mets didn't go for Jason Marquis. Maybe more on this at some future juncture.

Just a Couple of Thoughts

2009-12-09T22:12:00.001-05:00

- I understand that the Yankees got Curtis Granderson in part (possibly) to have leverage in contract negotiations with Johnny Damon. I understand that they probably think that Granderson will bounce back in a similar way to Nick Swisher last year. I won't be surprised if he does. I don't understand why they are willing (if they are) to let Melky Cabrera play every day. He's not much of a hitter. He's not that great in the field, at least according to UZR. And the whole team is getting older. They honestly can't expect similar production from all or most of Posada, Jeter, Rivera. Age usually shows. I know Mariano has not broken (or come close), but seriously, do you think he can do it forever.

If they really have limitations on their payroll, I understand the move and the thought that they can live without Damon. But I have trouble believing that. To me, their too complacent. And that may just hurt them in 2009

- I don't know if Daniel Murphy can be a good everyday first baseman in the big leagues. But I don't know why other people think they do. The man, my friends, will turn 25 in April. His best years should be ahead of him. His batting line of.266/.313/.427, while far from spectacular was not far from league average. And that was in his first big league season.

As a frame of reference, I'd like to bring up a different first-year player's batting line. .266/.324/.396, with an OPS+ of 91. Pretty similar. Now this chap was 21, so a straight comparison is certainly not reasonable. But this chap is Carl Yastrzemski, so if Murph can emulate him at all, that's cool.

- I don't really get Wikipedia's sales pitch. They want people to donate money to keep them going. Or do they want money to keep themselves ad-free. I'm all for ad-free. For example, I liked baseball-reference.com better without the ads. But I don't think it's worth any significant (or, perhaps, insignificant,) money to me.

Belt-Run

2009-12-08T23:39:00.001-05:00

Q: How many times has Carlos Beltran been caught stealing in the major leagues (answer later)?

Power-Speed Number* could be (badly) redefined as Belting-Running Number, or Belt-Run for short. And Carlos Beltran is, in fact, one of the greats in recording that stat. Since he began playing regularly in Kansas City in 1999, Carlos has been in the top 7 in the league in P-S # every single year (except his injury-riddled 2000, 2005 and 2009 seasons). In three of those years, he was in the top 3 in the league. He's never led a league, however, in P-S #.

Or has he? In 2004, Beltran put up the 10^th-best (at the time, now it's 11^th) P-S # single-season mark ever. Do you see the problem? He was traded halfway through that year, and played the 2^nd half in the NL with the Astros. Since P-S # is an accumulating (as opposed to rate) stat, it is nearly impossible for a player who gets traded in mid-season to lead a league in it. Beltran actually came in fourth in the National League – that's how phenomenal he was. But his total number was significantly higher than NL Leader Bobby Abreu and AL Leader Alex Rodriguez.**

* Power-Speed Number is a metric that measures a player's ability at stealing bases and hitting home runs. What you might be thinking is "just add them together," but what that gives you will be often be an utterly dominant player in of the categories who has no real skill in the other (see Wills, Maury). Power-Speed Number takes both into equal account but also gives value to having proficiency in both areas as opposed to just one of the two (i.e. 40 home runs 40 steals nets a Power-Speed Number of 40; 60 home runs and 20 steals nets a P-S # of 30).

** How's that for a little Yankee-bashing. And speaking of the Yankees, I don't really get this rationale about forgetting about Damon and putting Granderson in left. The economy is bad. Long-term contracts are not available to 35 year old outfielders even if they're coming of their best season. So I don't think Damon is going to require more than, say, 2 years. Does anybody really think that 2 years of Cabrera is really preferable to 2 years of Damon.

Melky just finished his fourth relatively full-time year in the majors. He just had what was probably his best offensive year yet. And to be honest, it (in all of its .274/.336/.416 glamour) was not all that good. I know he should be coming into his peak offensive years, but does anyone get the feeling that he's just not that good?***

*** Parenthetically, Melky Cabrera's Baseball-Reference's sponsor for Melky Cabrera says (in part):

"Mike Cameron? Dude, has a career .340 OBP and he's 37. Melky, maybe now that you have a ring people will back off and remember you're 24 (with a career .331 OBP). There's plenty of time for the power to come."

That is so wrong on so many accounts. First of all, Cameron's 36. Second of all, Melky's 25. Thirdly, though he seems to acknowledge it, his bashing of Mike Cameron is dumb because Melky's OBP is worse. And fourthly (though he doesn't deal with this directly), Cameron is much better. In the last 11 seasons Cameron's lowest OPS+ has been 104. Melky has never cracked 100.

What I'm trying to say, is that the guy is a really good (and really consistent) all-around player. And here's the thing: It's not just those two stats. Beltran plays Gold-Glove defense, can take a walk and…

Answer: 38

…the man never, NEVER, gets caught stealing. Beltran has played 1562 games in his career. That's essentially the equivalent of 10 seasons in which he played nearly every game. Per season, that would mean, he gets thrown out less than 4 times a season on average. His steal number per season 28.6. He has done the equivalent of 10 seasons of 28.6 steals and 3.8 caught stealings. That's phenomenal.

His success rate is over 88%. That's the highest in baseball history (min. 200 steals, I think).

I guess I'm trying to say that this guy is a phenomenal ballplayer.

But you knew that.

No thanks, I'll Walk

2009-12-06T18:12:00.006-05:00

One of the interesting aspects in the game of baseball is the intentional base on balls. It is generally given to a fearsome slugger, illustrating the long-held baseball idea that "it's better to
give four balls for one base than four bases for one ball." Just as an example, Barry Bonds was intentionally walked 120 times in 2004.
Some people feel that it is a cowardly play – there are people out there who favor banning the intentional walk – but I don't really have much of a problem with it. I don't really see how it is a less legitimate part of baseball strategy than the bunt, for example. True, the pitcher is giving up on this hitter – but it's for the greater good. The bunter, similarly, is giving himself up for what he thinks will benefit his team.*
*I'm not calling into question whether or not the sacrifice bunt or the intentional walk is a good play. I'm just saying that they don't offend me with their submission of the battle in attempting to win the war.
The weird thing about the intentional walk, however, is that it is not always given to the most feared hitters out there. It's true that the league leader will usually be the best (or one of the best) hitters in the league.* But it seems that just as often (or perhaps almost as often) intentional walks are granted to the player immediately preceding a really bad one. A lot of the time, what causes an intentional walk is not so much the batter in the box as the one in the on-deck circle.
Case in point: In 2008, David Wright drew 5 intentional walks in 735 plate appearances. Brian Schneider drew 9 intentional walks in 384 plate appearances. Wright, by the way, finished seventh in the MVP voting and won the Silver Slugger. Schneider was lynched by a mob.** Did the opposing teams fear Schneider more than Wright? No. They feared Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delgado more than the Met pitchers.
* The league leaders in intentional walks (going back to 2000): Bonds (5 times), Vladimir Guerrero (5 times) Albert Pujols (3 times), Ichiro (3 times), Manny Ramirez (twice) Sammy Sosa, Justin Morneau and Nomar Garciaparra.
** Not really.

Eventually, after being bad for long enough, a ballplayer can accumulate a nice chunk of intentional walks. I'm still referring to Brian Schneider, of course. Schneider, in case you didn't know, is 39th in intentional walks among active players! 39th. As in tied with Pudge Rodriguez and Miguel Tejada. He's ahead of (among many others, obviously) Nomar, Alfonso Soriano, Pat Burrell. These aren't young players who haven't accumulated them yet. They're legitimate offensive stars who've been intentionally walked less than Brian Schneider. Others he's ahead of include Jermaine Dye, Johnny Damon, Jimmy Rollins, Jason Bay.
Two others: Derek Jeter, David Wright. Tell me you can't win a bet with that one.

Worth The Risk

2009-12-06T02:18:00.000-05:00

There are some baseball deals that are no-brainers. You know:

Acquire: Babe Ruth

Give up: $100,000

Then you have those baseball deals that make you think that the people doing them have no brains. Like:

Acquire: $100,000

Give up: Babe Ruth

Now, in truth, the Babe was somewhat of a trouble child. And he was reneging on his contract with the Red Sox. But that was some sort of dumb trade.

Not the point at all. The point is that these (or this) kinds of trades are outliers. Nobody argues about Milt Pappas for Frank Robinson. Nobody (especially out of Met fandom) is even discussing Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano*. And the truth is that because they don't inspire any discussion, they're really kind of boring. Not entirely boring. Rob Neyer wrote a book (Rob Neyer's Big Guide Book of Baseball Blunders) which heavily consists of really bad trades. Like Nolan Ryan for Jim Fregosi. But in general, they're kind of boring. You can make some real arguments about whether trading Aaron Heilman was smart. Not so much with Nolan Ryan.

* Not that anybody's discussing him either, but included in that trade was Joselo Diaz, who, as I recall, was at one time a relatively highly touted Met prospect. In the 5+ years since the Mets traded him he has reached the Major Leagues. For 7.2 innings. And an ERA of 9.39. (He's got a 14.77 minor league WHIP, so I wouldn't really expect to see much of him, henceforth.)

Not that this has to do with anything, but the Albuquerque Isotopes, the Dodgers AAA team, had a nice collection of former Met talent. Doug Mientkiewicz, Shawn Estes**, Scott Strickland, and Claudio Vargas all played for them this year. Mientkiewicz played alright for them, and actually spent part of the year on the Dodgers' bench.

Shawn Estes also pitched well, 3.07 ERA in 73.1 innings. Then something happened. My understanding (and I certainly could be wrong here) is that he thought that he merited promotion to the Dodgers, the Dodgers didn't, and he said goodbye. According to his Wikipedia page, "Estes claimed that he has not retired, but that he is simply unwilling to play AAA baseball."

I think the Mets should get him. I'm not kidding here. That's actually the point I'm too busy to get to because I'm doing a footnote.

Oh yeah, Vargas pitched well in 13 innings and Scott Strickland, who, by the way, has not pitched in the majors since 2005, recorded 32 saves, with a 2.98 ERA in 48 innings.

Now, what's weird about Strickland, who has not had much opportunity at the Major League level (he broke in 11 seasons ago and has 240 innings), is that for the most part he's been quite effective. In every season in which he pitched more than 18 innings, he's had an ERA+ of at least 116. For his career, he's got a 131 ERA+.

But it gets weirder. They can't think that he's just been luck y at the big league level, because without much exception, he's been quite good in the minors, too. He has a minor league ERA of 3.32. Last year, as I said, he had a 2.98 ERA. The year before that (also in AAA, this time with the Yankees Scranton team) he pitched 66.1 innings with an ERA of 3.53. Those ballclubs, especially the 2008 Yankees could have used a good, extra relief pitcher. But for some reason, Scott Strickland didn't get the call.

I don't want to belabor the point, but there's one glaring ballplayer who's getting in my way. LaTroy Hawkins gave the Yankees 41 innings at an ERA of 5.71. He got paid 3.75 million. Meanwhile, Scott Strickland has a 3.53 ERA in AAA. And remember, he's got a bit of a track record, too. His 131 ERA+ is much better than Hawkins' 104. I just don't get it.

Oh yeah, former Mets did pretty well.

** It's pretty cool to go to some great ballplayer who utterly dominated the game (Wagner, Ruth, Gehrig, Cobb, Pujols)'s Baseball-Reference.com page and see how freaking good they were. I don't even mean intense analysis (in the 7 years from 1910-1916, Walter Johnson had a 1.56 ERA), I'm referring to just glancing at how many of their numbers are in bold (signifying being a leader in that particular category).

Well, you can do the same thing with some less than awesome players. Shawn Estes had led the league in earned runs, walks and wild pitches.

The lesser players are usually cheaper. And worse. Which makes a lot of sense. But when they're a lot cheaper than proven commodities, they just might be worth it.

Take the 2009 Mets. They signed Gary Sheffield, a proven, if aged, slugger, for the minimum major league salary and he led the team in home runs (or tied, anyway). They got some serious bang for their buck. Now I know he was injured a heck of a lot of the time, but he was worth well more than the (relative) pittance that they gave him.

So I can't, for the life of me, figure out why people are against picking up veterans. I'm not referring to the Moises Alou's of the world, who are going to cost a pretty penny (and that's besides the doctor bills). I'm referring to the Gary Sheffields of the world. I don't even remember where it was that I heard this, but it seemed as though there was a big consensus that the Mets needed to forget about the aged. Which I just don't get.

Shelling out money is entirely different. You don't want to give Gary Sheffield (or Julio Franco, or perhaps Alex Cora) a big-money multi-year deal in the twilight stage of his career. But these cheap pickups of proven veterans have got to be good – both for the clubhouse and the diamond.

If the Mets are going to lose, I'd also rather it be with Daniel Murphy than with some aged non-Met. But extending spring training invitations to Edgardo Alfonzo, Shawn Estes and other mere possibilities might just net the Mets the 2010 version of Gary Sheffield.

And that's a lot more good than it is bad.

Say "No" to Mac

2009-12-03T01:18:00.001-05:00

Mark McGwire has been on the Hall of Fame ballot for three years. He has not been elected. He has not reached 25% in the voting, which is precisely 1/3 of what it takes to be elected. Mark McGwire was a great player. So why would he not not be elected to the Hall of Fame?

There are essentially three reasons that could explain why people would not vote for him:*

1. He was not great enough to merit Hall of Fame election.

2. He was not great for long enough to merit Hall of Fame election.

3. He was a freaking cheater, and as such does not merit Hall of Fame election.

Reason 1, I believe, is patently inaccurate. Or impossible. Either way. Just to run down what this guy did: He won a Rookie of the Year award, finished as high as second in MVP voting (he figured in the balloting ten times), was a 12 time All-Star, broke a 37-year old record twice (well, technically only once, but you know what I mean), won a Gold Glove (who knew?) and three Silver Sluggers.** He led the league: in RBIs once, in homers four times, in walks twice, in OBP twice, in SLG twice, in OPS twice, OPS+ four times, and in intentional walks once. Career-wise, he's tied for 12th in OPS+, ninth in slugging, in essence ninth in home runs (he's technically tied for 8th, but it's with A-Rod, so that's kind of irrelevant), and he's in the top 40 in walks and offensive winning percentage. He leads everyone ever in at bats per homer. Nice resume.

*Actually, four, everyone could just love the other candidates more, but that's just complicating matters.

** This, to tell you the truth, stuns me. McGwire won four home run crowns, but only three Silver Sluggers? I know shortstop is not the same as first base, but do you realize that Derek Jeter has more Silver Sluggers than Mark McGwire.

*** Interestingly enough, even though his 61 home run year, 1961, came in a lower scoring era than McGwire's 70 season, Maris's OPS+ is lower, markedly lower, than Mark's. McGwire, in '98, drew 68 more walks than Maris in '61. That probably has something to do with the fact that Mickey Mantle was protecting Maris while Ray Lankford and Brian Jordan were protecting Mac. Just saying.

In terms of McGwire's not being great for long enough, well, there's a question there. Roger Maris, whose record McGwire broke in 1998, is, surprisingly to some casual baseball fans, not in the Hall of Fame. Quite simply, he had some Hall of Fame worthy seasons, but his career numbers don't reach the mark.*** The truth is that this doesn't really seem to be true. Did he have a very long career? No. He had over 2,000 fewer plate appearances than Ted Williams who lost significant time fighting in Europe and Korea. But what's important to remember with McGwire is that he does not only have great seasonal stats (70 HR) and rate stats (10.6 AB/HR, 162 OPS+), but he also accumulated some pretty serious stats (583 HR). Was McGwire essentially a one-dimensional player? Yes. Was he awesome for a rather short period of time? Yes. But when you consider that the man is 9th in career home runs (or 8th), I think it's pretty hard to trash on his longevity.

So, it seems that if you don't think he's a Hall of Famer, you believe that because "He was a freaking cheater, and as such does not merit Hall of Fame election." Personally, I think that's pretty darned logical. Rob Neyer doesn't. Neyer says:

There have been, for many years, rules prohibiting corked bats and doctored baseballs, but we know there are players in the Hall of Fame who happily violated those rules. We also know that many, and perhaps most of the great players of the 1970s routinely and illegally ingested stimulants with the express purpose of enhancing their performance.

For me, this is the heart of the matter. Like steroids, stimulants in the 1970s (and afterward) were used as performance enhancers. Like steroids, stimulants were generally against the law, but willfully ignored by the Lords of Baseball. I would absolutely love for someone to explain to me the difference between what Mark McGwire (allegedly) did, and what the superstars of the 1960s and '70s were doing.

I think there are basically two things that are up for discussion here:

1. Pre-Canseco drugs
2. corked bats and doctored balls

I'm not going to even touch upon the amphetamines of the 60s and 70s. My opinion on steroids is simple: You cheated. Period. Why should the fact that others were doing it have relevance? If the players of the 60s and 70s were doing the same type of thing, then they, too, should not be voted for.

Neyer's first argument is "corked bats and doctored baseballs," which are of course expressly against the law. I have three thoughts about this. First, simply, three of the criteria for Hall of Fame election are integrity, sportsmanship and character.* I think a clear argument could be made that known cheaters - of any type - should not be admitted to the Hall, henceforth. But Gaylord Perry is in? So what - that was someone else's mistake. Remember, Freddie Lindstrom's in the Hall, too.

Secondly, and this applies to scuffing but not corking, I think there is an intrinsic difference between scuffing a ball (or corking a bat) and juicing. Scuffing the ball is done on the field, and I think that there is a general perception that anything that is done on the field of play, under the umpire's watchful eye, is legitimate. It's kind of like the phantom double play.

Thirdly, scuffing the ball is a situational thing. So is, to a lesser extent. Sammy Sosa** corked a bat. (Assuming that you believe he used it on purpose,) Sammy Sosa is a cheater. But what did he cheat? Well, he cheated in that at bat. And he probably cheated in a bunch of other at bats. But it's a one-time, or two-time or a twenty-time transgression. He's probably playing legitimately most of the time. When a ballplayer juices, he's changing his body. You lose the whole "Man vs. Man" struggle, because that's not what it is anymore - it's man vs. HGH-man. It's essentially man vs. robot man. More, ethically, you're done. You have illegally and unethically changed your body and there is no going back. Assume with me for a moment that Sammy Sosa used a corked bat just that once and used legal materials the rest of the time. Can that be compared with a fellow who changes his chemical makeup turning him into a Superman?

I think not.

*Please. Do me a favor. Don't take those criteria to tell you that Ty Cobb doesn't belong in the Hall of Fame. If you're trying to make a conclusion about a bordrline candidate, those traits should certainly be taken into account. Cobb's statistics are so staggering that I don't think there's any relevance as to the fact that he was of bad character.

That argument is akin to claiming, if the Hall of Fame were to be started right now, that there's no way you could vote Ty Cobb in because he hit fewer home runs than Ben Grieve. There's too much stuff overflowing in the other categories (batting average, a triple crown) to make an argument against his Hall of Fame legitimacy.

** I am obviously using Sammy Sosa because I consider him a good example of someone who corked his bat. Not because I consider him a good example of someone who obviously did not take steroids.

Catch the Ball

2009-11-30T22:29:00.002-05:00

Apparently, the Mets have re-signed infielder Alex Cora and signed utility-catcher Chris Coste. Cora's job should be similar to what it was last year, backing up the middle infielders. Coste's is somewhat less clear.

Coste, who rookied with the Phillies at age 33 in 2006, will turn 37 before the start of the 2010 season. Defensively, he can catch and play first base. Though he hasn't thus far in his major league career, in his time in the minors Coste did spend significant time at third base. (He also played some games in the outfield, but that's probably irrelevant as he's a full eight years removed from his most recent outfield appearance.

In terms of his hitting, after a very fine rookie showing in 2006, Coste's offensive game has gone downhill. Never one to take a walk, Coste has shown a declining batting average and power as he moves into his later thirties. Which can hardly be a surprise.

Though he has shown proficiency against lefties and Omir Santos has against right-handers, it would be very surprising if the Mets make these two their catching tandem. His versatility does allow the possibility of him making the roster as a utility catcher - with the ability to backup the first and third basemen - but his decline in hitting over the last few years does not make that seem very likely.

More likely, Coste is being brought in with the expectation of landing
a job in AAA, where he would be just a phone call (and a flight) away
if a major league catcher went down.

On the other hand, he may be in the fray with Omir Santos for the
backup catcher job. I'm not really sure how the Mets brass feels about
Santos.

Either way, I think the pick-up is a good one. Coste is a versatile
player, and to be quite frank, the numbers he put up after being
traded to Houston last year, .204/.259/.252, while horrendous, are far
enough from his standard that I think he could bounce back.

How RIght You Are

2009-11-29T03:39:00.002-05:00

I was talking to someone and he made some possibly accurate but totally ridiculous comparison. I forget what it was, but I told him that what he was saying was akin to explaining Rey Ordonez's inability to hit with the fact that he didn't hit as well as George--er--Babe Ruth.

That kind of comparison is like winning the battle but getting nowhere in the war. Ordonez didn't hit as well as Babe Ruth - not many people have - but that is not what proves that he was a terrible hitter. If you were to point out that he couldn't hit as well as Desi Relaford, well, that might be a bit more informative.

As you probably know, Albert Pujols was voted MVP of the National League. More importantly, I suppose, Pujols was MVP of the National League. It was his 3rd MVP. That means that Pujols now has more MVPs than all but 9 baseball players. Bonds, Berra, Campy, Dimag, Foxx, Mantle, Musial, A-Rod, Mike Schmidt. That's pretty good company, and I'm sure that Albert is happy to be mentioned in the same sentence as those great ballplayers.

Here's what Barry Bonds had to say about a young Albert in 2003 "[Albert Pujols] reminds me of Bobby Bonilla, but better."

Right on, Barry.

What Are You So Mad About?

2009-11-25T11:16:00.003-05:00

Tim Lincecum was voted the National League's Cy Young Award winner last week (actually, that's when the results came out, but whatever). Lincecum had, by all accounts, a really good season, leading the NL in strikeouts, complete games, and shutouts and placing second in categories like ERA and hits/9 innings. He was fourth in WHIP.

As you may be aware, there was some considerable hoopla surrounding the voting process, as various people believed that either Chris Carpenter or Adam Wainwright, both of St. Louis, should have won the award.

On Monday, Joe Mauer was announced as the AL MVP. The vote was unanimous, excepting one voter who listed Miguel Cabrera first on his ballot.*

The hoopla around that award's voting, and there was some of it, was that Mauer should have been unanimous.

*Mauer did come as close to unanimous as possible. He was listed second on that one ballot.

The pro-Carpenter people expressed disdain at the fact that people are relying on new-fangled stats, like FIP, to rate players. And that may well have been done.

But here's what I don't get. The people who didn't vote for Carpenter were not relying on some new-alphabet-soup kind of statistic. I mean, they might have been, but the reason you don't vote for Carpenter is simple. It's called Innings Pitched. He may have been somewhat more effective than Lincecum, but he pitched 32.2 fewer innings. That's pretty significant. And it's a rather good reason not to vote for the man.

I would have been less surprised if traditional baseball writers been annoyed with Mauer's inclusion than Carpenter's exclusion. Mark Teixeira led the AL in home runs, RBI and total bases. If the push would have been for him to win it would have been understandable, if wrong.

But blasting people for not voting for a man with less than 200 IP against pretty comparable competition is not really something that I get.

3s in Our Society

2009-11-24T17:59:00.001-05:00

Did you ever notice how certain numbers always seem to be creeping up on you all the time? Maybe you were reading Harry Potter and there were too many sevens. Maybe you noticed that 50% of the words you uttered were precisely two syllables. Maybe not.

Now that the award voting is in for the 2009 baseball season, I'd like to identify three significant 3s in baseball today. And more than significant, they're rather mind-boggling.

1. Ichiro Suzuki just concluded his ninth year in the major leagues. In only 3 of his seasons did he not lead the Major Leagues (or tie for the lead) in hits. In those three seasons he had (or had a tie for) second place in hits in the Major Leagues.

2. Albert Pujols has just concluded his ninth year in the major leagues. In only 3 of his seasons did he not come in first or second place in the MVP voting.*

3. In the history of the American League, a catcher has only won the batting title 3 times. Joe Mauer, Joe Mauer and Joe Mauer. (2006, 2008, 2009)

* Ichiro and Albert Pujols were both rookies in 2001. They won Rookie of the Year Awards in their respective leagues in 2001.** 2001 may well go down as the best ROY Class of all time. Ichiro and Albert Pujols, not bad. They do have some competition.

In 1947, Jackie Robinson was Rookie of the Year. They only gave out one award for both leagues back then, so it would be pretty hard to count that. In 1951, World Series foes Willie Mays and Gil McDougald won the two awards. Only one Hall of Famer there, but McDougald was a really good infielder, and between the two of them you've got 25 years of All-Star Game appearances.

1956 was the first time that two future Hall-of-Famers would win the award. Frank Robinson and his 38 home runs won the National League ROY, while Luis Aparicio and his league-leading 21 steals won the Junior Circuit's rookie crown.

In 1967, Tom Seaver and Rod Carew, both future first-ballot Hall-of-Famers, won their league's award.

10 year later, in 1977, Montreal's Andre Dawson and Baltimore's Eddie Murray were Rookies of the Year. Dawson is, as of right now, not a Hall-of-Famer (and he may never be), but I think (and I'm not sure here) that these two have more career home runs than any other ROYs.

WIth apologies to Jose Canseco (1986), the steroid class of ROYs was 1987, with Mark McGwire and Benito Santiago.

It's not really fair to try and rate the 2006 (Hanley Ramirez, Justin Verlander) and 2007 (Ryan Braun, Dustin Pedroia) as of yet.

I think that the winning class is....1967. Rod Carew and Tom Seaver are ahead of Pujols and Ichiro. And quite frankly, I don't know if they'll catch them. Ichiro is already 36. We don't know how much he has left (though it'd be hard to say that he's showing his age).

For the more complete answer, check back in ten years.

Parenthetically, that was some serious class of rookies in '01. Besides the winners, Ichiro and Pujols, there were Sabathia, Alfonso Soriano, David Eckstein, Roy Oswalt, Jimmy Rollins, Adam Dunn. Not too shabby.

** I was discussing the ROY with a friend of mine in 2001. He was, as I recall, trying to point out how good a rookie year Soriano had. Sorry, sir. Most irrelevant. Looking it up now, Soriano didn't just not get a first-place vote - he finished third, behind Ichiro and CC Sabathia.

The Best?

2009-11-18T16:32:00.001-05:00

Joe Girardi finished second in the Manager of the Year Award voting this year. If Joe Girardi did not make the playoffs this year, I think there's a pretty good bet that he'd have been fired. In essence, making the playoffs was part of his job. (I suppose you could quibble on that, but it's what I believe, and I think most people would agree with that.)

If making the playoffs was part of his job, it would seem that he did so well in the balloting because of his postseason managing. Here's the problem: Everybody thought that his managing was bad in the postseason.

Do you get this?

Randomness

2009-11-17T17:16:00.003-05:00

Over time, things have a habit of evening out. What I mean by this, I suppose, is that while something really peculiar may occur, you would expect things to eventually revert to normal (whatever that may be).

Sometimes, however, things that occur are so bizarre that they are noteworthy, even though they are just random fluctuations.

An example of this would involve Doc Ellis's having pitched a no-hitter while on LSD. Most of the time that people are on LSD, they don't pitch a game, but if you started a study on people under the influence of LSD on June 12, 1970, you might have assumed that it was a common occurrence.

That's all pretty intuitive and very useless.

My point is that sometimes things happen and they are interesting in their out-of-the-ordinary way. *

My point is that Honus Wagner, the greatest shortstop in baseball history (and it's not close) pitched 8.1 innings in his career and had an ERA of 0.00. **

*I think that this is what I am trying to say. The fact that Babe Ruth led the AL in home runs 12 times in his career is pretty amazing. But if had, say, turned a triple play once, it would have a distinctly different kind of interest to it.

** Which means, in case you were wondering, that he pitched so well that he didn't have an ERA+. And you thought Zack Greinke was good!

By the Way: There's a new poll up.

How About This?

2009-11-15T20:24:00.001-05:00

How about this for your random and obscure fact of the day? In 1876, the Athletics, Reds, Louisville Grays and New York Mutuals all had more errors than runs scored.

With modern groundskeeping, better playing fields and better equipment, things are very different in today's game of baseball. In 2009, the only team that had more errors than runs scored was the New York Mets.

Oh, my mistake. Even the Mets managed to squeeze past the .500 mark with 674 more runs scored than errors committed.

What can I say? It's a different game!

Awesome

2009-11-15T01:51:00.001-05:00

I don't know if you knew about this, but the spectacular website baseball-reference.com has this really awesome thing called Play Index. Play Index has a few really cool facets, one of which is a tool with which you can search for seasons with statistical criteria, like most home runs in a season by a switch-hitting second baseman (Ray Durham, 26, 2006), or highest batting average by a 29 year old who batted left-handed and threw right-handed (Ty Cobb, .371, 1916) or most hit-by-pitches by a National League right-fielder (Geoff Jenkins, 19, 2005). Basically, it's really, really cool.

Check it out. http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/

And for the next five days, it's free.

Awful October

2009-11-11T13:37:00.003-05:00

Well, not really, but from a baseball perspective, what more is there to say?

What could be worse than the Yankees meeting the Phillies in the World Series? The Yankees beating the Phillies in the World Series.

Such is life as a Mets fan.

Pessimism abounds. You miss victory. As kind of an about-face to most Met fans mentalities, I'm going to try to recap what has gone right over the past five years in Mets-ville.

And the truth is, it's a heck of a lot.

2004 -2005

-- The Mets hire Willie Randolph and sign star free agents Carlos Beltran and Pedro Martinez, bringing respect back to a franchise just over a year removed from a 95-loss season.

-- Cliff Floyd has, perhaps the best season in his career, setting personal records with 34 home runs and having his second to best season in terms of walks, games played and RBIs.

-- Mike Piazza, in his last year with the club, spanks 19 home runs in declining playing time.

-- The Mets have one of the best fielding right fielders in baseball, with former Gold Glove winning Mike Cameron manning the post.

-- David Wright hits 27 home runs in his first full season and seems destined for stardom.

--Mike Jacobs makes mincemeat out of Major League pitching in his first exposure to it, swatting 11 home runs in only 100 at bats.

There was more. Check back for more 2005 highlights, and also coming up will be highlights from the 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009 seasons.

Why, oh Why

2009-10-21T13:54:00.003-04:00

What an unpleasant Yankee-Angel game yesterday. Not only did the Yankees score twice as many runs as their playoff opponents, but the umpires mad three (count 'em, three) truly bad calls during the game.*

When the game was over, I just couldn't figure out one thing: Why didn't Girardi pull Gaudin with two outs in the ninth?

*I'd probably rate them from worse to worser as follows:
1. Calling Nick Swisher out in the 4th inning for leaving third base early (on appeal). Which would be great. Except he didn't leave third base early.
2. Calling Nick Swisher safe on that pickoff play (also in the 4th).
3. Calling Robinson Cano safe on what should have been a double play in the top of the fifth inning. That call at third base was the worst that I can remember seeing. Period.

More Itching

2009-10-14T08:33:00.000-04:00

As you probably know, in today's game of baseball, on-base percentage is valued very much (as it should be). Jeff Francoeur, for example, is derided by many due to his inability to take a walk.

There are, however, certain players (like Albert Pujols, Luis Castillo, Derek Jeter and many others) who use walks effectively as an offensive weapon.

And then there's Ichiro. Ichiro is a speedster. He has stolen at least 26 bases every year of his career, while totalling over 40 three times. He's the exact kind of player that you would think would try to take as many pitches as possible, try to walk as much as possible, so that he could get on base and steal bases and use his speed. But he doesn't. Never.

Now, you never really hear Ichiro criticized for this* because his OBP is never low. His high batting averages (.352 this year, good for second in the AL) kind of camouflage the fact that he doesn't take any pitches.

Jeff Francoeur, who never walks, walked 23 times this year, to Ichiro's 32. Here's the thing: Ichiro was intentionally walked 15 times. Francouer was intentionally walked 5 times.** So Jeff Let-me-swing-at-everything Francoeur actually drew more walks of his own volition than Ichiro did.***

Also, with a minimum of 632 plate appearances, the leader in fewest walks drawn is Migue Tejada, with 19. Two were intentional. Ichiro tied the leader in fewest walks in unintentional walks. Just something to chew on.

* I don't know how accurate this really is. Ichiro has such a weird hitting style that he might not be able to be the player he is if he wouldn't be so aggressive at the plate. I really don't know. But I'm assuming not.

** Which is a scary thought, in-and-of itself. Jeff Francoeur was intentionally walked 5 times? Wow!

*** Of course. How many walks did you expect Ichiro to draw of Francoeur's volition?

Not Fresh But Still Funny:

Jordan

There's been a lot of chatter about moving Piazza to 1B. My feeling is that he's of more value as a catcher even with all the stolen bases, especially with offense at such a premium for the Mets. What's your take?

Bill James
(4:44 PM)

I'd move him, and let Mo Vaughn catch. I think he'd throw out about as many runners, and it would be more entertaining to watch.

(http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/3503)

* * *

I was speaking with somebody today, and he told me that he hates the Marlins. For crying out loud, who hates the Marlins? They're not a great team, they don't have a great history, and this guy is not even a fan of a National League team!

Cigars?

2009-10-01T23:45:00.004-04:00

Albert Pujols is currently leading the National League in home runs. He is third in batting average and third in RBIs. Not bad, huh. Even measured up to his own standard's, he's doing pretty well.

But, alas; what could have been? Though there was some speculation about it earlier in the season, it now seems as though Albert Pujols will not win the Triple Crown.

But you never know. With a little luck, he could just make it. And a lot of hitting.

Poll Results: The voters have voted and the results are in: David Wright is the Mets' MVP this year. Big surprise.

It's Official

2009-09-15T22:19:00.003-04:00

It's official. We have seen way too much Obama-mania in this country over the past 20 months or so.

How so? I was watching Mike Piazza's dramatic home run in the bottom of the eighth inning on September 21, 2001. That was the first (professional) baseball game played in New York City after the 9/11 attacks. With the Mets down by a run with one out and Desi Relaford* on first base, Piazza cranked a home run over the center field fence. This was a huge moment for New York. The TV cameras showed the ebullient fans jumping up and down and cheering like crazy. Then it showed the auxiliary scoreboard down the left-field line which flashed "Home Run!"

*Remember him? Desi Relaford was the backup infielder for the Mets for that lone 2001 season. I was probably his biggest fan. In what was one of the best years of his career, he put up a .302/.364/.472 line. Not bad for a backup infielder. He'd be batting second on the 2009 Mets. He also pitched a perfect inning for the Mets (to give some relief to the relief pitchers) when they were getting shelled by the Padres.

As you may recall, (okay, probably not) Desi was included in the deal with the Giants that netted the Mets Shawn Estes. Though, you probably have not heard much (if anything) about him of late (since the end of the 2005 season, he's started 9 Major League games), Shawn was in the major leagues with the Padres last year, and pitched, quite frankly, a lot better than Livan Hernandez did. Maybe the Mets should have gotten him instead.

He began this year with the Dodgers Triple-A affiliate and pitched quite well, posting 3-4 record, but an ERA of 3.07. He is no longer playing, but is officially "not retired."

The TV flashed to a fan jumping up and down with a sign that read "WE BELIEVE." Then it showed Piazza getting greeted by his teammated near the dugout steps. It flashes to the auxiliary scoreboard down the right-field line, which scrolls "YES." And my mind immediately expects to see "WE CAN."

It's Not that Hard to Defend.

2009-09-15T20:46:00.003-04:00

A lot of people seem to be making a big deal over Pedro Martinez's victory over the Mets on Sunday night. Pedro threw a great game, no doubt, with 8 shutout innings in which he allowed just 6 hits, while striking out 7 and walking just two. He also lowered his ERA to 2.87 and received the victory to improve his record to 5-0. Not bad. In fact, with numbers like those combined with the fact that Johan Santana's on the disabled list, Pedro would probably be the Mets best starter.

But if you ask me, it's pretty darn hard to blame the Mets for not signing him when he became available this summer.

1. He wouldn't be helping the Mets anyway. You know that. Give the Mets five more wins, and they're 15 games out of first place. And that's besides the fact that with the Mets anemic offense and with the actuality that the Mets don't have any pitchers who are 0-5, he's not giving them five wins anyway.

2. He stank last year. Did you forget. After an encouraging five games after he returned from surgery at the end of the 2007 season, Pedro pitched terribly in 2008. How badly? 5-6 with a 5.61 ERA.

How bad is that?

Let's put it this way. When Livan Hernandez was released by the Mets this year, his ERA was 5.47.

WOW!

2009-09-14T13:35:00.003-04:00

This is ridiculous.

And let me just point out that either

1. That guy is so scraped and bruised from messing up so many times that his mother probably doesn't recognize him; or

2. That guy is so awesome that he isn't scraped and bruised.

I don't know which is a scarier concept.

2.721

2009-09-10T22:38:00.006-04:00

Derek Jeter, as you no doubt know, has 2,721 hits. At that, he's tied with Lou Gehrig for 53rd on the all-time hits list. He's also tied with said Lou Gehrig for first on the Yankees hit list.

Now, this is not a particularly big deal. * First of all, it's a team record. Is anybody going to make a big deal in a couple of years if/when David Wright or Jose Reyes breaks Ed Kranepool's franchise record of 1,418 hits? I hope not. It's not that big a deal. Remember, with his next hit, Derek Jeter will get sole possession of 53rd place on the all-time hits list.

*Obviously it's a big deal. Approximately 1 in 5,000,000 people on this planet are in the Major Leagues in any given year. To excel in a talent group of that caliber is amazing. To lead the Rays franchise in hits (as ---------- [guess who - answer at the end] does with 1,274) is an amazing thing. John Maine, who has 1 home run and a .107 batting average is practically an athletic freak of nature. The difference between his accomplishments and those of Derek Jeter's are as huge as the distance to right in Citi Field.

But as baseball "records" go, it's not a big deal.

Well, you might be thinking, maybe people are making a big deal about this because he's about to break Lou Gehrig's record. I mean, we're talking Lou Gehrig - The Iron Horse, the sidekick of the great Babe Ruth, the guy that baseball-reference.com says was nicknamed "Biscuit Pants." That was some special dude - of COURSE they're making a big deal about Derek Jeter. Except for the itsy-bitsy fact that Lou Gehrig's game was not base hits. Lou Gehrig hit more than twice as many home runs as Derek Jeter hit. When Derek hits his 493rd home run, you can start to argue about who was greater. (Fine, 393rd)

I have a good one. Let's make a big deal because Derek Jeter has more stolen bases than Babe Ruth. BABE FREAKING RUTH - the guy who practically invented baseball. The problem with that is that stolen bases were not Babe Ruth. Singles were not Lou Gehrig. Did you know that from 1926-1934, Lou Gehrig had over 80 extra-base hits in every single year. He had over 80 again in 1936 and 1937. Derek Jeter's never done it.

Which is not, once again, to say that Derek Jeter's not a good ballplayer. He's a really good ballplayer. But making a big deal because he is about to break a team stat from a ballplayer whose expertise was in a different field is just ridiculous.

By the way, did you know that Derek Jeter's 52nd on the all-time strikeouts list? Just saying...

Poll Results: Our poll question asked "How Many Games will the Mets Win this Year?" The winning answer was 70-74. That's optimism.

Trivia Answer: Carl Crawford. You should've known that.

New Poll: Our new poll asks you, "Who is the Mets MVP this year?"

Who Figuer-ed?

2009-08-31T09:06:00.003-04:00

Nelson was brilliant yesterday, pitching 7 innings and driving in as many runs (1) as he gave up. What more could you ask from your number seven starter?

Others who contributed to yesterday's miniature offensive outburst were Anderson Hernandez, Jeff Francoeur and Daniel Murphy with RBI hits (Hernandez's a triple).

Fernando Tatis seemed to get a hold of a ball in the top of the fourth inning, and he hit a shot to left, but the wind knocked it down and it didn't even make the warning track.

The wind could have been the story of the day as it (possibly) played a role in around 7 plays, most of which involved Luis Castillo. Castillo was battling like nobody's business, but when he yielded to Jeff Francoeur on a pop-up in the ninth, Francoeur dropped it. Kosuke Fukodome, who was on first, was forced out at second by the alert Castillo, but those two Mets were having a rough time of it.

The Mets Win a Balllgame!!

2009-08-28T00:07:00.004-04:00

Russ Hodges immortal words (which can be heard here) almost should have been parodied in Landshark Stadium today.

"The Mets win a ballgame...The Mets win a ballgame...I don't believe it...The Mets win a ballgame" would have hardly been inappropriate. Why didn't Howie Rose use those words? Because they were up by 7 runs.

But what a display the Mets put on today. Trotting out a lineup that had fewer home runs combined than the Marlins top two sluggers, the Mets promptly made mincemeat of Anibal Sanchez and crew.

Every single member of the Mets starting lineup (1-8) had at least two hits. Anderson Hernandez had three. Daniel Murphy cracked 2 RBI doubles, Jeff Francoeur knocked in a pair, and the New York Mets were on their way to victory.

The only Met who couldn't get anything done in the batter's box more than proved his worth in that of the pitcher. Just 3 runs on 5 hits in 6.2 innings. There's not much more you can ask for from Tim Redding. Now, Johan Santana's a different story. But remember, this is Tim Redding. TIM REDDING. You know, the guy who just managed to get his ERA under 6 with this fine outing. Ya Gotta take that!

Tomorrow is Pat Misch's first start of the year. He'll be taking on the Chicago Cubs and Ted Lilly.

If the Met year had gone differently, if say, Delgado, Beltran, Reyes, Wright, Church, Sheffield, Schneider, Pagan and Fernando Martinez had not been injured - if Johan Santana, Oliver Perez, John Maine, and JJ Putz had not gotten hurt - if all of the above had played as expected and the Mets had only one starting pitcher pitching like a number five starter, I might be making fun of the Cubbies right now.

But that ain't happening.

Poll Results: Our last poll asked you, "Who's your favorite infielder?" The winner was former-and-current Met Anderson Hernandez.

Bright Spots

2009-08-24T15:58:00.002-04:00

In what looks like a lost year for the New York Mets, I'd like to highlight a (slighlty) bright spot: Perspective.

2009 seems to be the year of the injury. But it's more than that: It is, to some extent, the year of "What Will Be."

Angel Pagan, Daniel Murphy, Fernando Martinez, Bobby Parnell: These men have all been auditioning for jobs with the 2010 New York Mets. And Angel, with his real production, may just have earned one.

And the other thing about this year worth mentioning is the carousel of unqualified shortstops that the Mets have put out there. I have nothing against Anderson Hernandez, Ramon Martinez, Wilson Valdez, Angel Berroa and Argenis Reyes.

But, seriously, are these the New York Mets or the B-Mets?

That's Three

2009-08-23T20:52:00.002-04:00

It was not exactly a great moment for Met fandom, but this was a pretty cool (and rare) play.

Also, hat's off to Angel Pagan, who is (I believe) the first Met with two home runs in a game since Daniel Murphy.

Itch

2009-08-20T09:32:00.001-04:00

In 2005, Ichiro hit 15 home runs. Obviously I don't follow him or the Mariners too closely, but that definitely surprised me. I recall reading a quote from his father (I think) saying that if he wanted to, Ichiro could hit 30 home runs in a season.

Okay. But there are two things.

1. The whole point was that he could - but that that's not his game. His game is about speed and offense; and
2. It's his father, so I'm not entirely certain about how much stock we should put in what he said about Ichiro.*

* I am reminded right now of Ty Cobb. Cobb, as you probably know, was arguably the best hitter of all time. (He wasn't, but people argue that he was.) He has the highest batting average of all time, and I believe I once read something along the lines of "Ty Cobb retired having set 106 records, one of which was having set most records." Point is, he was good. And to some extent, he was an Ichiro slap-the-ball-and-run type player. Which I suppose most people were back when he played. He supposedly practiced his bunting by putting down a sweater and trying to get the ball to land on the edge of the sleeve.

Anyway, while he was a quasi-slugger (I mean, he did lead the league in slugging percentage eight times), he wasn't exactly your prototypical knock-the-cover-off-the-ball type of hitter. From 1906 (his first kind of full-time season) to 1920, he topped out at 9 home runs in a year, averaging about 4.5.

That was when the live-ball era arrived. And this aging quasi-slugger, this stolen base man, the fellow who practiced having his bunts land on the cuff of the sweater, this 34-year-old sixteen-year veteran, hit 12 home runs in a season twice.

I'm not going to say that 15 home runs is such a huge total , but it sure ain't bad from a Gold Glove outfielder who will also pound out 200 hits. On the Mets he's be batting third.

2001 was one of the best (if not the best) year for the Rookie of the Year Award. The American League Award went to Ichiro Suzuki, while the National League Award went to Albert Pujols. I just want to point out that if they each keep up their pace for the next month and a half, they will have each played nine full seasons.

In only 3 of them will Ichiro not have led the American League in hits. In only 3 of them will Albert Pujols not have had either won the MVP award or placed runner up.

Just saying.

Wild Game

2009-08-19T22:01:00.005-04:00

Trivia Question: What is Ichiro Suzuki's career high in home runs? (answer later)

Another Question: Why is it that the Mets major league team doesn't cover the bases properly? (No answer forthcoming)

What a game! How often do you see a pitcher give up 8 runs in an inning - and remain in the game to pitch the next inning?

A couple of players earned a trip to the moon in frequent flier miles in tonight's game. Here's basically what happened:

Anderson Hernandez started off the game at shortstop. In the bottom of the third inning, Wilson Valdez pinch-hit for Bobby Parnell. That's where all the trouble started. Valdez remained in the game as the shortstop and Anderson Hernandez shifted to second, with Luis Castillo being double-switched out for Nelson Figueroa.

In the bottom of the fifth, Andy Green pinch-hit for Figueroa. Green remained in the game at second base and Anderson Hernandez went back to shortstop, with Wilson Valdez now shifting to left field to replace Gary Sheffield who was double-switched out of the game for Tim Redding.

In the bottom of the eighth, Cory Sullivan pinch-hit for Redding. He remained in the game as the left fielder. Valdez went back to shortstop, with Anderson Hernandez going back to second. Andy Green shifted to third taking over defensively for Fernando Tatis, whose spot in the batting order was taken by Sean Green.

This would all be so much cooler if it happened because the Mets did this in a game in which they were blowing out the enemy instead of vice-versa.

Answer: 15. For more, click here.

Who's Up First?

2009-08-18T19:32:00.005-04:00

Let's start off with a question: What is the average number of pitchers who have had at least one at-bat for National League teams this year?

I just concluded a bit of research on pitchers hitting and I found out (essentially) nothing (well, kind of). The team with the most pitchers with at least one PA is in last place. The team with the fewest is in first. Not only that, but the NL teams that leads in this category are both in last place. That would seem to tell you that the best teams have fewer pitchers hit. The problem? The Yankees lead all AL teams.

Additionally, the AL teams that are in second place are in the first, third, fourth and fifth places in their respective divisions. Hmm...

The NL teams that are in second place in terms of amount of pitchers with PAs are teams in first and 2nd place.

The reason that I have not given you any numbers is because I wanted them to be a mystery only to be solved at the end of this excruciatingly long blog post. I know that I, for one, was quite surprised by how many pitchers have hit. In fact this all happened when I saw that the Blue Jays had 8 pitchers hit. I thought that was a lot. They only play 9 games a year without the DH. Assuming that there are 5 starters, even assume one starter goes down with an injury, you have 6 starters - there are an additional 2 pitchers that get At-Bats? I guess so.

In fact, they don't even lead their own division. So what do I know.

Answer: 14

Just me, once again, but that seems pretty high, too.

I wrote earlier that I learned essentially nothing from this exercise. That's true. What it does seem like to me, however, is that in the National League you can kind of get a gauge of how good the team is by seeing how many pitchers batted. Which, of course, makes sense. The worse your pitchers are, the more you'll use. The more you use, the higher the number of pitchers who step to the plate.

Here are the numbers. If they're not neat enough, you can write to your Congressperson.

Yankees 9
Red Sox 8
Rays 6
Blue Jays 8
Orioles 8

Tigers 7
W. Sox 5
Twins 6
Indians 8
Royals 6

Angels 4
Rangers 7
Mariners 7
A's 6

Average 6.78

Phillies 13
Marlins 16
Braves 12
Mets 14
Nats 18

Cards 13
Cubs 12
Brew 13
Astros 13
Reds 15
Pirates 14

Dodgers 16
Rockies 10
Giants 14
D-Backs 13
Padres 18

Average 14

Poll Results: I asked "Which injured Met will return to Major League action first?" It now seems as though the answer is Billy Wagner, who was not even an option in the poll.

I think I was hoping that by the time I reviewed the poll we would know the answer, but alas, that is not the case.

Anyway, the poll ended in a three-way tie between Carlos Delgado, Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes.

Speaking of injured Mets, this is a great article from the SNY website. Feast your eyes. And remember, his point is so much better now that David Wright is down and out.

That Was Ugly

2009-08-16T14:43:00.002-04:00

Skeptics predicted it. Fans dreaded it. And yesterday it happened.

What? This.

How ironic is it that right as the pitch was about to be thrown, the FOX announcer said "That's good old country hardball here."

With the amount of injuries that the Mets have suffered this year, you would think they would make it their business to move their Triple A team somewhere less than, say, 300 miles away. It's just economically prudent.

Bitter

2009-08-09T10:22:00.002-04:00

Well, what if I am bitter about the way the Mets are playing? I can still point out the inaccuracies of other people.

Get a load of this. Nice sliding play by David Eckstein. But did you get a load of the title of that clip: "Eckstein's strong throw?" You've got to be kidding me.

Congratulations to Alex Cora on hitting his first home run of the year. He was the fifteenth Met to hit a home run this year. And Geico wants you to know...Just kidding.

Cans of Corn

2009-08-05T17:32:00.005-04:00

I think the Mets players are like cans of corn - they're dropping like flies.

Yesterday, the Mets got news of a setback to Jose Reyes's recovery. Then Luis Castillo fell down the dugout steps and had to leave the game.

Today, adding injury to injury, Johnathan Niese hurt his hamstring while covering first base on an attempted double play. And then Gary Sheffield pulled up lame at first base after crushing a base hit to left-center field.

Yet they won. Nelson Figueroa and Bobby Parnell spun 7.1 scoreless innings - against an offense that had scored 12 runs the night before and the offense, led by Angel Pagan and and David Wright, scored seven runs.

I still think that with all their players healthy, they are, at the very least, the team to beat in the Wild Card race.

Now if Beltran and Delgado can just come back.

You know what Yogi said: It ain't over 'til it's over.

Innocent

2009-08-03T20:18:00.004-04:00

As you probably know if you're living and breathing, Omar Minaya has been getting a fair amount of blame for the Mets substandard record in 2009. And he should probably expect it.

The Mets have the highest payroll in the National League. To think that they are struggling right now, trying to ease their way up to .500 seems to show some significant mismanagement. It's hard to blame people for getting disturbed.

But, if you ask me, (and I know you didn't, but it's my blog) it's hard to blame Omar Minaya for this team's troubles.

Last year, the Mets won 89 games and finished 3 games out of first place.

They basically played with this team:

C Brian Schneider/Ramon Castro/Raul Casanova/Robinson Cancel (C+)
1B Carlos Delgado (A-)
2B Luis Castillo/Damion Easley/Argenis Reyes (C)
3B David Wright (A+)
SS Jose Reyes (A)
LF Fernando Tatis/Daniel Murphy/Nick Evans/Angel Pagan/Marlon Anderson/Moises Alou (B-)
CF Carlos Beltran (A+)
RF Ryan Church/Endy Chavez/Trot Nixon (B)

Those letters in parentheses are the grades that I gave to the positions. They are approximate. That's a pretty good team.

Here is what I assume Jerry Manuel figured:
1. Brian Schneider/Ramon Castro would continue their decent catching duties.
2. Carlos Delgado, who hit torridly the last 3 months of last year, as well as in the World Baseball Classic, would put up similar numbers to those of last year.
3. Luis Castillo would improve on last year's injury-hampered numbers.
4&5. David Wright and Jose Reyes would at least duplicate their numbers from last year, while possibly showing some improvement considering that they are both under 27.
6. Daniel Murphy would be able to play left field and hit rather nicely.
7. Carlos Beltran would be Carlos Beltran.
8. Ryan Church would, after full recovery from last year's injury debacle, play quite well.

Here is where Omar's luck went bad: Of his 8 rather reasonable assumptions, only 3 (1, 3, 5) came to fruition. Injuries bad ballplaying hampered 5 of the 8 everyday positions.

But there's more. It's not like the Mets had no decent backups. They had Fernando Tatis, who was great last year as a semi-regular ready to back up the corner infield and outfield positions. They had Alex Cora, a fine backup infielder. They had Gary Sheffield and Nick Evans, both of whom can seemingly hit a bit, and play a little (very little) defense. And Jeremy Reed, who is this year's Endy Chavez, was availabe to back up the three outfield spots.

In a nutshell, here is what happened. Jose Reyes, Carlos Delgado, Carlos Beltran, got hurt. Ryan Church, Daniel Murphy and Fernando Tatis (and David Wright, to a lesser extent) clearly underperformed. CLEARLY. Throw in an injury to JJ Putz, and you've got yourself a lost season.

Unless...they come back. And perform. And win.

* * *

I was holding a relative's (relatively) new-born baby today. It burped and spit up. The baby's mother asked "Oh, did it burp or spit up?" to which someone else responded something like "both."

I said, "I like that it burped and spit up. That's my kind of person."

Poll Results

2009-07-31T15:15:00.002-04:00

Okay. The results of our poll are in. The poll asked about your reaction to the Ryan Church for Jeff Francoeur trade. And let's put it bluntly: The trade was not up to scratch - at least for our voter(s).

The new poll is up. The question is "Which injured Met will return to MLB playing action soonest?"
The choices are Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, JJ Putz and Jose Reyes.

Vote early, vote often.

Late Push

2009-07-31T01:01:00.004-04:00

With the trading deadline creeping up - and with it the decision of whether to become buyers or sellers - the Mets have gone on a winning spree. Before falling to the Rockies in the second game of their twinbill on Thursday, the New York Mets - with all their injuries - were winners of five straight.

How did this injury ravaged lineup win five straight. Well, it's kind of simple. When you give up nine runs in five games and score at least four per, you're giving yourself a good shot. Every starter pitched well - even Oliver Perez was OK - and the offense was doing the job, too.

The Mets stand six games back of the Giants in the wildcard hunt.

Notes: I'd like to note Fernando Tatis's two home runs against the Rockies. Number six on the year, Thursday, put him into a tie for third on the Mets this year, with Omir Santos and David Wright. They're behind Gary Sheffield and Carlos Beltran. (Seriously, how much money could I have made by betting that David Wright, 375 at-bats into the season, would have 6 home runs.

Also, nice heads-up play by Angel Berroa in the top of the seventh yesterday. Troy Tulowitzki hit a high fly to left. Tatis tracked it to the wall and leaped, but missed the play. Anyway, the ball bounced hard off the padding and was making its way back to the infield, when Berroa, the shortstop, picked it up and threw it in.

Not something you see every day.

Welcome

2009-07-20T20:43:00.004-04:00

Fernando Nieve, who tore his right quadriceps while running out an infield grounder yesterday, has been placed on the disabled list, and outfielder Cory Sullivan has been called up from Triple-A to take his spot on the roster.

According to this,

"The team called up Sullivan rather than 22-year-old prospect Nick Evans (who played 15 games for the Mets prior to the All-Star break) because of Sullivan's versatility.

"In our situation now, in Cory's defense, he has a little bit more versatility than Nick," manager Jerry Manuel said. "He can play center field, he can play right field. Nick is a first baseman/left fielder basically, and he's still growing and learning those positions.""

Now, maybe I'm crazy (it's been argued), but to me, that doesn't really make any sense. Two days ago it seemed as though the Mets outfield consisted of Jeff Francoeur in right, Angel Pagan in center, and Gary Sheffield in left, with Fernando Tatis and Jeremy Reed as the backups. Okay, now Sheffield hurts himself.

If I'm the GM, I probably want to call up Nick Evans and play him in left field, but apparently they want Jeremy Reed to play left.

Here's the problem though. The man who went down was not needed to play center or right. Why should his replacement need to? Tatis can play right, and Reed can play all three spots, so a versatile outfielder is irrelevant. Basically, you can have one outfielder who can only play left.

I may have the answer. According to this, the Jerry Manuel is toying with the idea of having Livan Hernandez play some first base. Aha! Should that happen, Daniel Murphy might try to reinvent himself as an outfielder - one who can only play left.

If Jerry is really going to try this, the decision to leave Evans in Buffalo makes some sense. If he isn't - which certainly would seem more likely - it's a mystery.

Optimism?

2009-07-20T19:52:00.004-04:00

Everybody thinks that the Mets stink. And can you blame them? They're nine games out of first place.

Well, if you're feeling blue about this team, orange you happy to read these optimistic notes.

Johan Santana, who is darn good whenever, is markedly better after the All-Star break. Just for one example, last year his ERA, WHIP, and SO/BB ratio were all much better after the All-Star break. And he went 8-0.
David Wright is a power hitter. He will likely hit some home runs in the second half.
Daniel Murphy is seemingly getting comfortable at first. Maybe he'll start hitting.
The bullpen is pretty good.
If Carlos Delgado comes back in, like two weeks, and gets hot, he could carry this team.
Fernando Tatis is probably a bit better than he's playing.

I know, I know, it's a weak list. But the fifth point (while containing a big "if") can be huge.

Baseball Note: According to this, the fourth-most similar pitcher to Tim Lincecum through age 24 (I know you were wondering) is Jim Bouton (who, in case you don't know, was arguably the most influential baseball player ever).

Poll Results

2009-07-19T10:07:00.002-04:00

Ironically enough, considering his terrible start on Friday, our readership (or whoever voted) chose Mike Pelfrey as the second-best starting pitcher on the staff.

Our new poll asks about what your reaction to the Ryan Church for Jeff Francoeur was.

Vote early and vote often.

Time for Synagogue

2009-07-17T19:16:00.004-04:00

Okay, we're one game past the traditional halfway mark in the baseball schedule, and things are not looking good if you root for the Mets. The Mets, picked by Sports Illustrated to win it all this year, are in fourth place.

With an overflowing portion of injuries to the likes of Jose Reyes, Carlos Delgado and Carlos Beltran and the under-performance of players like Daniel Murphy and Fernando Tatis, the Mets are in hot water.

Then Omar Minaya trades Ryan Church for Jeff Francoeur. Ryan Church was one of the Mets only healthy players with any real upside. Sheffield's old, Castillo has no power, Schneider can't really hit. Church was really good last year (especially until the concussion) and has shown flashes of that this year. In fact, with Beltran and Fernando Martinez out, he became our center fielder.

So, let me understand: You trade one of your best uninjured players for a slow outfielder who doesn't hit for average, strikes out a ton, and treats walks as if they're the bubonic plague. Oh, and let me clarify - I'm not talking about and Adam-Dunn-without-the-walks type of player. This is a man with five home runs. Let me repeat that: Five home runs.

I understand that three years ago Jeff Francoeur was a summer sensation. He made Sports Illustrated, got all the hoopla, and for all I know, it didn't even get to his head. But the fact is that right now the guy stinks. And he's seemingly going on a downward trend. Could this trade work out well for the Mets? Sure.

But it doesn't make any sense.

Ugly Update

2009-07-06T23:31:00.003-04:00

The Mets, to put it mildly, are suffering mightily. After dropping 3 games in Philadelphia (in which they scored only three runs - three runs), the Mets are now three games under .500 and 4.5 games behind the first-place Phillies.

What's more, the Los Angeles Dodgers (of Los Angeles), possessors of the best record in the major leagues as well as Manny Ramirez, are coming to Flushing. Get ready for a long week.

Or should you?

Here's why the Mets might beat the Dodgers...

Game 1: Mike Pelfrey vs. Clayton Kershaw
These two youngsters have a lot of potential between them, so don't look for too many runs on the scoreboard tomorrow night. If Pelfrey is as good as he was last time out, the Mets might just eke out a win.

Game 2: Oliver Perez vs. Hiroki Kuroda
Oliver Perez. The enigma to end all mysteries. He's been devastating so often in his career - and downright terrible just as often. Hopefully he'll be on the top of his game and the Mets can score a few runs. Because otherwise, they're toast.

Game 3: Randy Wolf vs. Livan Hernandez
Probably the game that the Mets have the least chance of winning, as Livan always seems to implode when playing good teams - but what watch out for the fellow. He's got a lot of tricks up his sleeve.

As I analyze these forthcoming games, I realize that the only reason I give the Mets any chance against the Dodgers is because Tim Redding is not pitching.

How's that for optimism?

Bases on Balls

2009-06-26T17:02:00.003-04:00

In a somewhat controversial blog post, Harold Reynolds basically bashes power hitters like Adam Dunn and Adrian Gonzalez because they walk and "clog the bases." He also writes that he doesn't like OPS because a pitcher's fear leads him to walk power hitters and drive up their on-base percentage.

Well, that's a darn good reason for a stat to go up. Walks are extremely valuable. I did some research on the subject and concluded that on occasions that Adam Dunn walked this year, he had 2 RBIs and scored 7 runs.* There were also occasions in which he extended the inning and one of the following batters drove in other base-runners.

All-in-all, walks are not remotely worthless. Batters who draw a lot of them (for any reason) should be rewarded in the statistical record. If they have value, it should show.

*I'm not entirely certain, because I checked these numbers a while back, but I believe that there was also one instance in which he was pinch-run for and the pinch-runner scored.

Closing In...

2009-06-24T00:10:00.005-04:00

Carlos Beltran is now hurt. He joins the ever-growing list of wounded Mets that includes such ballplayers as Carlos Delgado, Jose Reyes, J.J. Putz, Oliver Perez and John Maine. Oh, and don't forget Gary Sheffield. Yet, believe it or not, the Mets are closing in on first place.

Under almost any circumstances, winning three games in a four-game series is impressive. With all those All-Stars on the shelf, it's nearly unfathomable.

So how did the New York Mets, in their current crippled state achieve the unachievable? How did they face off against a first-place (and darn good) St. Louis Cardinals team for a threee-game set and emerge victorious?

A lot of it had to do with starting pitching. Over the four games, Mets starters pitched 27 innings, in which they allowed nine runs (only seven earned) on only 23 hits. Their strikeout to walk ration was a pedestrian 1.36, but the walks didn't hurt all too much and the defense did pretty good work. Was there a luck aspect involved? Probably, but what do you want - this is baseball.

But it was more than that. In the nine innings that the bullpen worked they gave up nothing. 3 hits and no runs. And remember, J.J. Putz, the setup man, is disabled, and Bobby Parnell, his replacement, has been so overworked that they vowed to rest him for the first few games. No runs in four games! It's an impressive achievement, to say the least.

But there's some more credit to pass around. David Wright had 6 hits and 4 runs, Fernando Tatis, who is hopefully out of his seemingly interminable batting slump, had 5 RBIs over the four games. Ryan Church contributed runs and RBIs at the rate of 3 apiece, and the middle of the order, while it may not have scared the Cardinals too much, certainly hurt them.

Tomorrow the Mets take on the Yankees at Citi Field with Mike Pelfrey taking on Yankee ace C.C. Sabathia.

Poll Update: In our last poll, we asked you "Who should play right and left field for the Mets?" with the choices being Gary Sheffield, Ryan Church, Fernando Tatis, and Fernando Martinez. Coming in first was Ryan Church, with Gary Sheffield and Fernando Tatis tied for second.

Weekend Notes

2009-06-14T03:42:00.009-04:00

After a really tough loss to the Yankees at their new "wiffle ball stadium" on Friday night (capped by a Luis Castillo error), the Mets rebounded last night by beating the Yankees 6-2. Gary Sheffield likes going back to being a designated hitter - he's 4 for 10 with two home runs and a double in the last two games.

David Wright, if you didn't know, is leading the major leagues in batting average.
Carlos Beltran is not far behind.
Fernando Nieve pitched solidly in place of the injured John Maine.
The Mets had 17 hits today.
They are not dead.
Trust me.

Interesting Note: It might just be me, but it seems as though there is an inordinate number of former Mets second basemen floating around the Major Leagues.

Melvin Mora, BAL - played 8 games at second base with the Mets in 1999-2000 before being traded (with others) to the Orioles for Mike Bordick.
Ty Wigginton, BAL - played 37 games at second base with the Mets in 2002 and 2004 before being traded to the Pirates in 2004 in the Kris Benson deal.
Marco Scutaro, TOR - played in 51 games at second base for the Mets in 2002-2003 before being waived in 2003.
Anderson Hernandez, WAS - played in 18 games at second base for the Mets in 2005-2006 before being sent to the Nationals in 2008 to complete the Luis Ayala deal.
Kazuo Matsui, HOU - played in 105 games at second base with the Mets in 2004-2006 before being traded in 2006 for Eli Marrero.
Jeff Keppinger, HOU - played in 32 games with the Mets at second base in 2004 before being traded in 2006 to the Royals for Ruben Gotay.

Ruben Gotay (who played 37 games at second in 2007) does not make the list. He might soon, considering he is a AAA infielder for the Arizona Diamondbacks and his on-base percentage is currently more than 50 points higher than what the Diamondbacks are getting from their second basemen.

Coincidence? I Think Not

2009-06-12T19:12:00.003-04:00

It sure is good that we posted this post when we did. Today's lineup has Beltran and Wright batting third and fourth, followed by Ryan Church, and then in the 6-hole the slumping, aged Gary Sheffield.

Could it be a coincidence that Jerry takes our advice to heart? Nah.

Note: Luis Castillo is batting ninth in this game. Alex Cora is occupying the lead-off spot. It'll probably stay that way for the remainder of the series.

Batting Order Blues

2009-06-12T10:25:00.004-04:00

As put forth so nicely here, David Wright is leading the National League in batting average and on-base percentage, which brings forth the question of why he is batting 5th in the batting order. Now, it been scientifically proven that the order of the batters makes a very slight difference, but still - the Mets lost two games in extra innings over the last 48 hours. Just one extra Met run by the ninth inning in either game would have them 2 games out of first right now instead 4.

While I haven't written about it, this has been an issue that has been on my mind for a while - essentially since Wright's batting average escalated and Carlos Delgado went on the Disabled List. I also think that it's quite a waste for the Mets to have two of the top three (the other is Carlos Beltran) batting averages (and two of the top five on-base percentages) in the National League, and not take advantage by batting those players back-to-back.

I asked somebody about this a few days ago, and he said, essentially, that Gary Sheffield's value goes up because he's being protected by Wright (as opposed to, say Fernando Tatis or Daniel Murphy). Now, I can hear that. But I still can't stomach Jerry Manuel's separating his two best hitters - by what has turned out to be an out machine in Gary Sheffield, no less.

The solution, perhaps, is to have Sheffield bat third. Then, Wright and Beltran could protect him in the fourth and fifth slots.

I just don't see how it can hurt to have your best hitters batting back-to-back.

Welcome

2009-06-12T10:03:00.001-04:00

Good Morning, and welcome to our new blog address. We hope you're as excited about the change as we are.

Enjoy!

What'd You Expect

2009-06-11T23:49:00.000-04:00

The Mets just lost two out of three games to the division-leading Philadelphia Phillies, which places them 4 games out of first place. Well, what did you expect? The Phillies are a good team - they currently have the second-best record in the major leagues (behind the Dodgers). Their pitching, while not great, is good enought that when combined with their amazing offense, good defense (they have the best Fielding % in the National League) and fine baserunning makes for a pretty darn good team. (By the way, they're also defending World Champions.)

So the Mets can live with losing this series. Especially the way they did. Missing key performers Jose Reyes and Carlos Delgado, it certainly wouldn't've been inconceivable for the Mets to have been embarrassed by the Phillies in the 3-game set. They absolutely were not. The Phillies only outscored the Mets by three runs over the whole series, and both of the Mets losses were in extra innings.

As such, this series lose was excusable. But they can't start duplicating it with regularity. Especially facing a tough stretch of division-leading and other good teams, the Mets cannot let down their guard and just wait to start winning when the big boys come back. They're not playing the Washington Nationals this weekend - their opponent is the revamped version of the New York Yankees, and anything less than a stellar effort by the Mets will likely result in their figuratively being torn to shreds.

But, with their good starting pitching, better base-running, and just a bit of clutch-hitting by the big bats, they should withstand their obstacles.

Those Tricksters

2009-06-06T23:08:00.000-04:00

Our poll of "Until Carlos Delgado's return, who should man first base?" ended in a tie between Fernando Tatis and Jeremy Reed. The Mets, in a move that has a lot fo merit, turned erstwhile outfielder Daniel Murphy into a first baseman, essentially nullifying our poll. Considering it leaves leftfield to Gary Sheffield, who has become the team's cleanup hitter, the position change makes a lot of sense.

Meanwhile, the Mets stand 3 games behind the division-leading Phillies after splitting the first two games of their weekend series with the Nats. With a injury-plagued team, the Mets are struggling to put out a major-league caliber lineup every night, which probably has a lot to do with their being swept by the Pittsburgh Pirates this week.

But help is on the way. Ryan Church, who had been out with a strained right hamstring, should be coming off of the disabled list on Sunday, and should provide a defensive upgrade, at the very least.

Here's the key for the Mets: With key offensive contributors like Messrs. Delgado and Reyes sidelined by injury, the way to victory for the Mets essentially lies with the starting pitching. The offense is weak, but with quality pitching by Santana, Pelfrey and Co., the offense should perform well enough to win most of the time.

And that's good enough.

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New Poll: Our new poll asks you to select the two outfielders who you believe should be flanking Carlos Beltran in the outfield. The options are Gary Sheffield, Ryan Church, Fernando Tatis and Fernando Martinez. Please only pick two.

Predictable Success

2009-05-28T18:42:00.000-04:00

Baseball is fickle, every fan of the game knows that. The 1962 Mets, considered by many to be the worst team of all time won 1/4 of their games.

A .250 winning percentage is obscenely low, and a .700 winning percentage is exceedingly high. As such, when two ballclubs play a game, even if one has significantly more talent than the other, you can never predict the outcome with real certainty.

That being said, the Mets' sweep of the Washington Nationals was hardly unpredictable (see this). Even though they were missing a few key players, the Mets outclassed the Nats. Gary Sheffield was bashing the ball, Messrs. Maine, Hernandez, and Santana pitched quite well, and the team as a whole played like they meant it.

The Mets even did well in regard to video review, with Sheffield and Murphy's blasts being ruled home runs.

Additionally, your "Met Fan" blogger made his way to Citi Field for the first time on Memorial Day, and was sitting in exactly the wrong spot to have a live opinion on Gary Sheffield's home run.

But you can't mess with a sweep that knocks the Mets into first place.

What a Welcome

2009-05-24T22:23:00.000-04:00

The Mets are surely expecting an easy go of it when they commence a three-game series with the cellar-dwelling Washington Nationals tomorrow evening. And after winning two of three games over the weekend from the powerhouse Boston Red Sox you can harldy blame them if that's how they feel.

The Mets entered Boston down in the doldrums, reeling after four straight losses on the left coast to the Giants and Dodgers. The Mets certainly should have expected to lose two out of three to the Red Sox in Boston. But instead, they went out, performed and surprised everyone, including (I bet) themselves in taking the series from the defending AL East Champions.

It started on Friday night when Johan Santana out-dueled Daisuke Matsuzaka and the Mets emerged as victors by a count of 5 to
Saturday night's win was certainly dramatic. Down to their last out against one of the premier relief aces in baseball, Sox closer Johnathan Papelbon, the Mets came back to win with the power of Omir Santos, the discernment of the umpiring crew, and the gloves of David Wright, Ramon Martinez, Luis Castillo and Daniel Murphy (left-to-right). (Parenthetically, I think Daniel Murphy is using Carlos Delgado's glove when playing first base. As such, perhaps he deserves the credit! I wonder if Bill James would give him a win share for the use of his glove. If so, he may be the first player ever to earn a win share while on the Disabled List.)

Sunday's game was a notably bad one for the Mets' pitching. The 12 runs they allowed tied the team's season high. The hitting was alright, including another home run for a Met catcher, this time Ramon Castro.

All in all, the Mets are 23-20, and 1.5 games out of first place, and if they want to show that they are a playoff-caliber team, they will have to take advantage of the next two weeks, when they will face the Nationals, Marlins and Pirates, all of whom are struggling.

Glad to be back

2009-05-17T00:17:00.000-04:00

After our unexcused absence of the last few week's, we at this blog are glad to announce that there is a new poll up. Enjoy.

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Today, Sunday May 17th, 2009, the New York Mets are in first place.

If you're just tuning into the season (which you had better not be - but if you are), after hearing that statement, you probably figure that Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, Oliver Perez, John Maine and Livan Hernandez have all pitched rather well. You probably think that the Mets' bullpen has been everything it wasn't in 2008. You probably think that Reyes and Murphy have gotten on base consistently and Wright, Delgado, Beltran and Church have been driving them in. You probably think that they have played well defensively.

Frankly, you're probably wrong.

Oh, not on every count, certainly not. Johan Santana has pitched even better than expected. Beltran and Wright have hit like All-Stars. But on the whole, the Mets journey to first place has not gone as planned.

Oliver Perez pitched his way onto the disabled list and Carlos Delgado is injured, as well. Jose Reyes has missed the last three games with a tight calf.

The secret for the Mets success has a lot to do with the success of the role players. Fernando Tatis, Gary Sheffield, Alex Cora and Ramon Castro have all been effective. Johnathan Niese and Nelson Figueroa have each contributed a quality start. And the regulars, even when less than expected (see Ryan Church) have been good enough.

And when you've got your number 3 starter and your cleanup hitter on the disabled list and you're still in first place, that's about all you can hope for.

A Long Summer or a Rough Start?

2009-04-24T18:40:00.000-04:00

When you look at where the Mets stand on April 24, 15 games into the 2009 baseball season, things look really bad. The Mets are 6 and 9 and already 5 games behind the out-of-nowhere Florida Marlins. The starting pitching (with one noticeable exception) has been terrible. Clutch hitting is out of style. The season is over.

Or is it? There's no denying that the starting pitching has been horrid, but when they turn it around - and they probably will - there is no saying what this team can do. True, the hitting - particularly clutch - has been weak. But you have to remember: For crying out loud, we're 2 and a half weeks into the season.

Tell me: All the people who have been decrying the Mets for what they've done in their first 15 games, have they signed on Zack Greinke and Johan Santana as unanimous Cy Young award winners for 2009? All you people who think that John Maine and Oliver Perez will keep getting blown out of these ballgames - are you banking on Carlos Beltran winning the batting title?

I think not. Bashing the starting pitching early is particularly stupid. Remember Mike Pelfrey last year? Remember everybody bashing Johan Santana for his average start? He won the ERA crown.

The fact is that it's way too early to make good judgment less than 5% of the way into the season.

That's how I'm seeing things! Got a problem?

What's up Doc?

2009-04-05T13:05:00.000-04:00

Nothing much. The Mets signed my nephew.

Gary Sheffield, the nephew of former Mets pitching phenom Dwight Gooden, and a major league superstar himself, has signed with the Mets.

Sheffield, 40, leaves behind a checkered past with seven teams (most recently the Tigers), and joins the Mets as a DH in the National League. Though he's played plenty of outfield in the (somewhat more distant) past, Sheffield has played just 39 games in the outfield over the past 3 seasons.

Presumably, Sheffield would displace Ryan Church in right field for (at minimum) the games against left-handed starting pitching. Since Sheffield's signing, it has become apparent that Church may serve as understudy in left- and center-field in addition to whatever work he gets in right.

At the very least, this deal provides the Mets with an experienced right-handed bat who would be available for pinch-hitting duties.

As Opening Day Nears

2009-04-03T01:28:00.000-04:00

As Opening Day nears, it seems as though Jerry Manuel will have Luis Castillo batting eighth, the arguments otherwise (which can be found here) notwithstanding. Jose Reyes will bat in his customary leadoff spot, and Daniel Murphy will bat second. The third slot in the batting order's duty will be split by David Wright and Carlos Beltran, while the other will bat fifth. Carlos Delgado will bat cleanup. Ryan Church and the catching tandem of Brian Schneider and Ramon Castro will round out the top eight spots in the order; the pitcher will bat ninth.

It is unclear as to whether Luis Castillo would bat second in games that Daniel Murphy does not play. Should he not, the two-hole would probably be manned by Fernando Tatis.

Here is the Starting Lineup with last year's statistics: (BA/OBP/SLG/HR/RBI)
1. SS Jose Reyes (.297/.358/.475/16/68)
2. LF Daniel Murphy (.313/.397/.473/2/17) in 131 at-bats/
LF Fernando Tatis (.297/.369/.484/11/47) in 273 at-bats
3. 3B David Wright (.302/.390/.534/33/124)
4. 1B Carlos Delgado (.271/.353/.518/38/115)
5. CF Carlos Beltran (.284/.376/.500/27/112)
6. RF Ryan Church (.276/.346/.439/12/49) in 319 at-bats
7. C Brian Schneider (.257/.339/.367/9/38) in 335 at-bats/
C Ramon Castro (.245/.312/.441/7/24) in 143 at-bats
8. 2B Luis Castillo (.245/.355/.305/3/28) in 199 at-bats

It's a solid lineup, which, coupled with the quality rotation and great bullpen should comprise the team to beat in the National League East.

Mystery Solved

2009-03-10T17:39:00.000-04:00

The answer to yesterday's post regarding David Wright's wearing number 4 in the World Baseball Classic, as opposed to his customary 5 is quite simple. Team USA manager is wearing number 5.

Today, John Maine pitched ineffectively in his second straight start. As an integral component to the Mets machine, his performance will have to be markedly better come April.

Interesting WBC Note

2009-03-09T23:30:00.000-04:00

Weirdly enough, David Wright, who wears number 5 when he plays for the Mets, is wearing number 4 in the World Baseball Classic.

When I first noticed this, I figured that it was because somebody else was wearing number 5 on the USA team, but as is evidenced here, that is not the case.

If anybody knows the reason, please post it in the comments.

Santana Update

2009-03-09T23:10:00.000-04:00

Johan Santana's ability to pitch on Opening Day is still uncertain. Supposedly, if everything goes according to schedule, he will make it. Of course, that's a very big "if."

If you've been watching the pre-season games and have been wondering why there are so many ballplayers you've never heard of, and why some stars aren't playing at all, it's about time you've heard: there's a World Baseball Classic this year.

2009-03-03T23:03:00.000-05:00

Due to arm trouble, Johan Santana is not likely to be able to pitch on Opening Day for the Mets. If everything goes well, he'll pitch Game 5.

Poll Results

2009-02-21T22:59:00.000-05:00

Unanimously, the voters chose Manny Ramirez as the Mets best option for starting left-fielder for 2009.

Thoughts on the Batting Order

2009-02-15T00:21:00.000-05:00

Mets.com reports that Jerry Manuel may elect to have Jose Reyes bat third this year, in which case his customary leadoff slot would be manned by Luis Castillo. Carlos Beltran, who might otherwise bat fifth, would bat second, and David Wright and Carlos Delgado would probably bat third and fourth, respectively.

When I first got wind of this, I didn't think it was much of an idea. But it's growing on me. One major component is Luis Castillo. He has plenty of experience leading off in his career, and truthfully, that's probably the only slot in the batting order where he could be of significant value.

You see, Luis usually has a high on-base percentage and a very low slugging percentage. As such, the lower he bats in the batting order, the lower his value. If he bats second or seventh, his lack of extra-base power and related comparative inability to drive runs in will be a hole in the batting order. If he bats leadoff, his extra-base power is not a weakness. His ability to get on base and steal bases will be just what the doctor ordered (if not quite on par what Jose Reyes would provide) for the one-hole.

Having Jose Reyes bat third instead of second might just be necessary because Manuel wants Beltran to bat second. The benefit of that would be that the two lesser hitters (Castillo and Reyes) would each be protected by the two greater threats (Beltran and Wright/Delgado).

If this does occur, presumably Ryan Church would bat sixth, Daniel Murphy/Fernando Tatis sixth, and Brian Schneider/Ramon Castro eighth.

Otherwise, you might see Luis Castillo at the bottom of the order with Murphy or Church batting second.

When you get down to it, however, it's all a guessing game. Not only don't you really know if Castillo will bat better with Reyes or Beltran behind him, you don't really know if Castillo will produce in 2009. Or Beltran. Or the rest of them.

For Shame!!

2009-02-09T20:23:00.000-05:00

After reports that he had tested positive for steroids in 2003, today Alex Rodriguez admitted to using the illegal substances when he was with the Rangers from 2001-2003.

The effects of cheating: He posted his first, third and fifth-highest home run totals in those years. Those three years were also his three best in terms of games played. However, his reputation, weak all along, has now crumbled to a heap which journeymen players the likes of Steve Trachsel and Todd Zeile (and so many others) can now look down at.

Shame on you, Alex.

New Poll

2009-01-11T01:02:00.000-05:00

In our previous poll, "Which available pitcher should the Mets target this offseason," the winner was Derek Lowe. In second place was Jake Peavy, and third place went to Oliver Perez. CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett garnered nary a vote. Interstingly enough, they are now both Yankees. I feel rather certain that Sabathia was not voted for because of his large pricetag, and Burnett, because of his injury-laden past.

The new poll asks who you want to be the starting left-fielder for the Mets in the 2009 season. Choices include Daniel Murphy, Nick Evans, Manny Ramirez and Fernando Tatis.

2009-01-08T12:49:00.000-05:00

Rumors of Manny Ramirez being likely to join the Mets are of unknown validity. Stay tuned for updates.

Who is the best shortstop in New York?

2008-12-28T13:49:00.001-05:00

The real answer to this question is almost certainly Alex Rodriguez. But since he'll be playing third base for the Yankees, once again, let's look at Jose Reyes vs. Derek Jeter.

Jose Reyes is a young rising star who will turn 26 in June. Derek Jeter is an old fading star who will turn 35 in June. Derek Jeter's numbers look as though he is in decline. Jose Reyes's numbers look as though he is in ascent, or at the very least at a plateau - certainly not in decline. You might think that this is enough to say that Reyes is more valuable - in 2009 - than Jeter is, but some persistent Yankee fans have been hard-headed enough to lead me to pull some numbers out.

2008 Numbers

Reyes vs. Jeter
.833 OPS .771
113 Runs 88
37 Doubles 25
19 Triples 3
16 HR 11
56 SB 11
15 CS 5
9 GDP 24

Jose Reyes beats Derek Jeter in almost every major offensive category. Jeter does manage to squeak by Reyes in batting average and on-base percentage but those few points are nothing compared with the huge difference in their power numbers. Jeter also produces more outs, with many more double plays and has a significantly worse stolen base percentage.

On the fielding side of things, Reyes fielder much more balls than average for his position in the National League, while Jeter fielded fewer than AL average. So, while Jeter had a better fielding percentage than Reyes, he also made fewer plays. It is not worth having a fielder with no range and few errors over one with good range and more errors. Reyes, playing with a variety of second basemen, also turned many more DPs (89 to 69) than Jeter, playing essentially with Robinson Cano.

Overall, I (and the Mets) will go with Reyes.

Fresh Faces

2008-12-12T14:29:00.000-05:00

Well, they've done it. After six months of nail-biting anguish whenever a ballgame was passed over to the bullpen, the front-office has finally shown that it means business. Francisco "K-Rod" Rodriguez, who set the record for saves in a season (with 62) just months ago, has been signed by the Mets to close out games in 2009 and beyond.

Additionally, in a large and complicated trade, the Mets acquired Mariners' closer JJ Putz to be the primary set-up man for the club. The Mets parted with Aaron Heilman and Joe Smith - exchanging quantity for quality.

Whether they will contend (or, dare we say it, win) in 2009 has not yet been determined. However, these transactions certainly show that the Mets are committed to compete.

2008-12-10T09:36:00.000-05:00

Go "K"razy - Reportedly, the Mets have come to terms with free-agent closer Francisco Rodriguez (pending a physical, etc.).

No News (is Good News)

2008-11-30T22:12:00.000-05:00

Thus far, the Mets, like the other 29 teams, have been rather quiet. This will probably change soon.

The Mets must decide whether they want to keep Oliver Perez. While he is admittedly remarkably inconsistent, you've got to realize that there aren't a lot of quality starters out there to choose from. Pedro Martinez will almost certainly not return, and if Oliver Perez doesn't either, the Mets' rotation will be two men short. The proven pitchers, such as Derek Lowe, will be quite expensive, and the Mets are unlikely to acquire more than one high-priced starter. (Others include CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett.)

Oliver Perez is familiar with New York and has shown a propensity for pitching well under pressure. He may be the free agent that the Mets need.

If he returns, the Mets will have a solid, if not amazing, top 4 starting pitchers of Johan Santana, John Maine, Oliver Perez, and Mike Pelfrey. And one other good starter, and the rotation is really good.

* * *

But, realistically, the rotation is not the problem. Last year, the Mets had very good starting pitching and they still came up short.

What were the problems? Relief Pitching and Hitting (particularly of the clutch variety). With Ryan Church presumably recovered from his concussion, Fernando Tatis and Daniel Murphy splitting time in left-field and Carlos Delgado, once again, a feared slugger, the Mets should have a quite respectable offense.

* * *

Good starting pitching. Good hitting. That takes us to the bottom of the ninth. With a lead. To whom? The answer to this question and the rest of the bullpen puzzle may well decide the fate of the 2009 New York Mets. The only two longstanding members of the Mets bullpen are Aaron Heilman and Pedro Feliciano. Heilman is campaigning for a starting slot and both are coming off off-years. The bullpen is in shambles. Joe Smith should be returning. Scott Schoenweiss should also be, but who knows what he is worth. There is a closer (Billy Wagner) being paid, but there is none, as of yet, who will be putting on the orange and blue.

Omar Minaya: This is your place to shine. Build a good bullpen, and you know any talks about your recent extension will be squashed (unless they say, "They should have extended him for 10 years). The rotation and offense are important, but this ballclub will go nowhere without a quality bullpen.

The Moose Has Left His Tracks - But They Shouldn't Lead to Cooperstown

2008-11-22T23:51:00.000-05:00

Last week Mike Mussina announced his retirement. Good for him. He had a very good career and, with his renaissance last year, he ended it off on a good note (unlike many other pitchers, like John Franco and Al Leiter, who didn't know when to call it quits.) He doesn't need the money, having made well over 100 million dollars playing baseball. Now, of course, the Mussina-related discussion turns to whether or not he belongs in the Hall of Fame. I think not. Mike Mussina was quite good for quite a while, but is he really a great?

A natural place to turn in this discussion is awards. If a man has shown himself time and again to be the best pitcher in his league (such as Pedro Martinez) then he certainly qualifies as an all-time great. Mike Mussina has never won a Cy Young Award. Ron Guidry, Fernando Valenzuela and Doc Gooden all won Cy Young Awards and none of them is in the Hall of Fame. So did David Cone and Orel Hersheiser. Bret Saberhagen won two, and he isn't in it, either.

Not only was he never the best pitcher in the league, but he was never even particularly close. In 1999, Mussina was so much worse than Pedro Martinez, who got the Cy Young, that Mike did not even garner one first-place vote. His ERA was also well over a run higher than Pedro's.

Mike was almost always good, but never top quality. There was one year (1999) where he was maybe (I don't think so, but it's close -) in the top 5 pitchers of baseball.

Additionally, Mike did not do well in the postseason, and that will quite possibly count against him.

The question of whether Mike Mussina belongs in the Hall of Fame may boil down to this: Is a starting pitcher who received three first-place votes for the Cy Young in his entire career really Hall of Fame quality?

I think not.

Looking Towards Next Year

2008-11-16T15:07:00.000-05:00

With season 2008 a thing of the past, we can all try to forget about the World Champions, and concentrate on bringing the 2009 World Series Crown to New York. Queens.

If Omar Minaya can obtain the necessities on this shopping list, the Mets will no longer have an excuse for failing. (Their excuses over the past few years have been woefully inadequate, but have still existed. If the necessary parts come in, there will be no excuse. Period!)

Shopping List:
2nd Baseman
2 Starters
6 adequate relief pitchers

Right Now: The Mets are tied for first place with the Nationals, Braves, Marlins and Phillies (why shouldn't they be listed last?). They all have the pristine record of 0-0.

There's Nothing to Say

2008-10-03T00:31:00.000-04:00

Actually, there's always something to say. How about, "How lame would this team be without Johan Santana?"

Oliver Perez's good outing was far from enough as the offense (and to a much lesser extent the bullpen) took the day off. What it added up to was the third straight year that the Mets' season has ended on a sour note, and the second straight time it's been in Game 162.

Omar: Make it worth it to...

Wait 'til Next Year!!

Thin Ice

2008-09-15T22:33:00.000-04:00

After some ups and downs over the course of 2 weeks, this Friday night the Mets began a steep decline. They've lost 3 of 4, with a culpable bullpen, and the Phillies have been hot. The sum of things? The Mets are a dangerous just a half game ahead of the Phillies.

The fact is that the Mets are in first place. And while they are hardly firmly entrenched there, their fate is in their collective hand (which, in terms of the bullpen, is kind of scary). Additionally, with Milwaukee's recent troubles the Mets could fall back on the Wild Card as a means to the postseason if the Phillies take the NL East.

If you look at things logically, the Mets should try resigning Tom Seaver to their ballclub and putting him in the bullpen. There's nothing to lose - he can't be worse than anyone else out there. And the potential benefits are great: He might be able to pitch better than the other fellows, in which case the benefit is obvious. Even if he can't muster that, perhaps he can influence the bullpen members, or teach them something about the art of pitching (which he probably knows something about - look at this). Even if that doesn't happen, he's such a popular figure that he will undoubtedly put fans in the seats. Added revenue could very possibly get ownership to spend more money on salary for other, perhaps better, players (see Johan Santana).

All in all, I think it's a no-brainer.

What's the Difference?

2008-08-29T15:18:00.000-04:00

What's the difference between the New York Mets of 2007 and the New York Mets of 2008? I'm not asking for some of the obvious ones, the roster changes and such. What is the difference that will very possibly put them over the top?

1. Johan Santana. Having an ace, a stopper, who goes out every five days is extremely huge for a team in the pennant race. Johan essentially replaced Tom Glavine as the Mets' #1 starter, so the difference from 2007 is huge. (Remember Game 162 of last year?)

2. Carlos Delgado. His miraculous turnaround from a year ago is huge to a Mets' offense that's been without Moises Alou and Ryan Church for most of the year. He is hitting well and hitting clutch and has certainly been carrying the team.

There are a few others that can go in there. Camraderie, better production from the corner outfield spots, better defense, better starting pitching (overall), but I think that Carlos D. and Johan are the two essentials that can make this team win.

Coming Up: Oliver Perez takes on Chris Volstead of the Marlins as the Mets look to increase their lead over the Phils.

Flaming Hot

2008-08-26T11:45:00.000-04:00

Mike Pelfrey is pitching really, really well right now. How well? 4 runs in his last 18 innings, which were collected in two straight complete games. He also just cracked the top 20 in pitching in the National League.

Over the weekend, the Mets let the Philles climb even closer to them; currently Philadelphia is just one half game out of first. Tonight, the Mets play the first of two in Philadelphia. It's an opportunity for the Mets to strenghten their slim lead, and an opportunity for the Phils to regain it for themselves.

Up Next: Pedro Martinez and Jaime Moyer face off against each other in Philadelphia tonight. Each has been hot of late, so prepare for a pitching duel.

Baseball Note: The Washington Nationals and Seattle Marinersn each have a real possibility of being mathematically eliminated from the playoffs in the month of August. The Reds and Pirates each have an outside shot at this dubious honor. The San Diego Padres may get eliminated from the wild-card before September but will still (theoretically) be in the division race. Better luck next year.

Blog Update: You know how it seems as though Billy Wagner is going to be out longer than expected. Well, in some parallel universe I am emulating him. I've extended the deadline for voting in the Billy Poll. Now go out and vote!

2008-08-19T22:31:00.000-04:00

After hearing the disheartening Billy Wagner news, (he requires rest before he can resume throwing) the Mets went out and beat Atlanta 7-3. The game was a lot closer than that, however. Good starting pitching by both Jo-Jo (not a typo) Reyes and Oliver Perez left the game at 3-2 in favor of the Braves going into the bottom of the eighth.

The eight inning, the clear turning-point of the game, featured 5 Met runs including 2 RBIs each by Carlos Delgado and Damion Easley and one by Ramon Castro.

The fielding (at least for the Mets) was satisfactory once again.

The Mets maintain a 1.5 game lead over the Phillies.

Yankee Update: After their loss today, the floundering Yankees (3-7 in their last 10 games) are 11 games out of first place and 6.5 games out of the wild card. With Melky Cabrera (lost at the plate, so redirected to the minor leagues) out of the picture and Hideki Matsui in it, Johnny Damon is finding his way into center field. Not very effectively. He made two big miscues in tonights' game, and while only one went for an error, he really showed what he can - or can't - do out there in centerfield.

Poll: Time is running out to vote in our poll. Vote early; vote often.

No Nonsense

2008-08-17T17:04:00.000-04:00

Johan Santana didn't want to let the game go to the Mets' abysmal bullpen, so instead he opted to pitch the whole thing. Johan's 0-for-4 might not look pretty, but his complete-game shutout - the first by a Met all year - certainly was pleasing.

The bulk of the offense was delivered by the least likely of the starting 8, catcher Brian Schneider. His 2-for-3 with 3 RBIs was more than enough to deliver the Mets to a victory, their sixth straight.

Apology: In my last blog post I wrote that the Mets were on the verge of sweeping the Pirates. I had not realized that the series in Pittsburgh was a four-game affair and that the Mets will only be going for the sweep tomorrow.

Specific Stats: The Mets are in first place. Johan Santana's ERA is third-best in the league.

Get Your Brooms Ready...

2008-08-17T12:47:00.000-04:00

...because the Mets are looking for the sweep. After two impressive victories, the Mets are sending ace Johan Santana to the mound opposite Pirate (and former Yankee) Jeff Karstens.

Where's the Cat?

2008-08-13T22:54:00.000-04:00

Because the Mets, like the proverbial mouse, are certainly playing around. Tonight, they were all over Washington pitching with a total of 12 runs on 13 hits.

Two pitching surprises: The Mets won via the shutout, limiting the Nationals to just 4 hits, and they used only 2 pitchers. That's right. After John Maine pitched five great innings, Brian Stokes finished it off.

In the peculiar events of the last two nights, the Mets have had 2 saves - both by different people, neither of whom is the man they pronounced as their closer yesterday (Eddie Kunz).

On the defensive side of things, the Mets have been playing much better, of late. With Argenis Reyes (instead of Damion Easley) and Fernando Tatis (instead of Marlon Anderson) each getting a bit more playing time, no-one should be surprised at the decrease in errors. The surprising part is that the Mets have not made any errors in 18 of their last 21 games. That's pretty good! Included in that was a 12 game errorless streak from July 22 to August 2.

As of this writing, the Mets are just one half game behind the Phillies. That means that if the Phillies lose tonight, (unlikely, they're winning 6-1) the Mets would be tied with them for first place in the National League East.

Quality Starting: The Mets' rotation is really looking formidable. Johan Santana, arguably the greatest pitcher in baseball (I might argue that) is 5th in the league with an ERA of 2.89. Oliver Perez and John Maine are, respectively, 3.90 and 3.97, both very good marks. Mike Pelfrey backs up the list with "only" a 4.11 ERA. That's good stuff.

Surprise Twist

2008-08-12T22:48:00.000-04:00

After prevailing rumors (unfortuantely not on this site, I may have been slacking off) of Eddie Kunz being the new closer (until Billy Wagner's return), the closer tonight was Pedro Feliciano.

The good news, of course, that there was a save situation. Johan Santana pitched pretty well and the offense gave its contribution. Add that to good performance by the bullpen, and you've got a victory.

Unlucky

2008-08-11T20:54:00.000-04:00

Unlucky just about describes Pedro Martinez (in regard to a certain thing), in that he received a no-decision as compensation for his great outing today. (I can't call the guy unlucky - he'd pulled in over $134 million in baseball contracts coming into this year, according to this.)

Once again, the bullpen blew it. Joe Smith, Pedro Feliciano and Aaron Heilman each contributed to today's debacle, combining to give up 6 runs in an inning-plus. Especially distressing (at least to me) was Heilman's reverting to his old ways after two positive outings.

As you may recall (from the last paragraph of this), I have supported Aaron Heilman as the second-in-line closer (i.e. closer when, like now, Billy Wagner is unavailable). I still do support him, but I must admit that his inconsistency is really getting distressing. The step after that is depressing.

However, even after today's loss, the Mets are just 2.5 games out of the division lead. There's plenty of baseball, yet. All is not lost.

Yankees Update: The Yankees, in serious trouble at 8.5 games behind the Rays and 4 behind wild-card leading Boston, are currently losing to the Twins. Boston, too, is currently losing.

Poll Update: Apparently, consensus is that the Mets' biggest problem is their relief pitching. After today's game, I think it'd be hard to argue against that.

New Poll: Coming soon.

Queens Qrew

Spring Forward - Starting Lineup

Thoughts on Alderson

Hit-chiro

The Good, The Bad and The Precedent

Gee Willigers

All-Star Outfielder Picked up at the Trade Deadline

Taking Stock

Is that really Jermaine to the Matter?

Who's Got The Dough?

Taser

Consistent Inconsistency

On the Upcoming Season

On Fernando Martinez

Officially Psyched

Who's on First?

Bases on Balls

Mystifying

"Lots of Passed Balls"

On Mark McGwire

Jack Morris - Hall of Famer?

Flushing's Bay

Down but not Out - Edited

Just a Couple of Thoughts

Belt-Run

No thanks, I'll Walk

Worth The Risk

Say "No" to Mac

Catch the Ball

How RIght You Are

What Are You So Mad About?

3s in Our Society

The Best?

Randomness

How About This?

Awesome

Awful October

Why, oh Why

More Itching

Jordan

Bill James (4:44 PM)

Cigars?

It's Official

It's Not that Hard to Defend.

WOW!

2.721

Who Figuer-ed?

The Mets Win a Balllgame!!

Bright Spots

That's Three

Itch

Wild Game

Who's Up First?

That Was Ugly

Bitter

Cans of Corn

Innocent

Poll Results

Late Push

Welcome

Optimism?

Poll Results

Time for Synagogue

Ugly Update

Bases on Balls

Closing In...

Weekend Notes

Coincidence? I Think Not

Batting Order Blues

Welcome

What'd You Expect

Those Tricksters

Predictable Success

What a Welcome

Glad to be back

A Long Summer or a Rough Start?

What's up Doc?

As Opening Day Nears

Mystery Solved

Interesting WBC Note

Bill James
(4:44 PM)